luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Packers, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Vikings 21–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Packers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:21 left): D. Bailey missed a 47-yard field goal, worth 9 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 16
Green Bay Packers 21

September 15, 2019 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −3

Luck index +38 Packers lucky · −38 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 4, Packers win 6.

  1. 1 MIN 45 GB 21
  2. 2 MIN 34 GB 20
  3. 3 MIN 34 GB 27
  4. 4 MIN 20 GB 17
  5. 5 MIN 27 GB 29
  6. 6 MIN 33 GB 38
  7. 7 MIN 36 GB 45
  8. 8 MIN 26 GB 40
  9. 9 MIN 27 GB 47
  10. 10 MIN 15 GB 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 38% of them, Packers 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+10.3%
Vikings by 9–1610.6%
Vikings by 1–816.2%
Level after regulation2.1%
Packers by 1–822.0%
Packers by 9–1617.7%
Packers by 17+21.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 5, without the luck Packers by 1.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • D. Bailey, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 8 for 100 yards, Packers 6 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:23 False Start on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 13:31 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 25 yards +2% GB +1.6 pts
Q2 6:30 False Start on the Packers (Davante Adams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.5 pts
Q2 1:33 Defensive Holding on the Packers (Kenny Clark), 5 yards +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q2 1:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Dalvin Cook), 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +2.5 pts
Q2 0:23 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Stefon Diggs), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% GB +1.8 pts
Q3 11:55 Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.7 pts
Q3 10:07 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Adam Thielen), 10 yards +1% GB +0.8 pts
Q3 9:19 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Vikings (Stefon Diggs), 15 yards +3% GB +1.4 pts
Q3 2:10 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% GB +1.5 pts
Q4 14:52 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yards +5% GB +0.8 pts
Q4 13:30 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards +5% GB +1.0 pts
Q4 11:44 Offensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Jimmy Graham), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% MIN +1.6 pts
Q4 0:14 Delay of Game on the Packers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.1 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:21 D. Bailey missed a 47-yard field goalKicks · 77% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +9% GB MIN: Turnover
2 Q1 1:55 The Vikings converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIN MIN: Turnover
3 Q2 1:37 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% MIN GB: Punt
4 Q2 1:12 Offensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Dalvin Cook), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 36 snaps before, position avg 1 per 654 +6% GB GB: Punt
5 Q3 2:10 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% GB GB: Punt
6 Q4 15:00 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% MIN GB: Punt
7 Q4 14:52 The Vikings fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 27 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +5% MIN MIN: Punt
8 Q4 3:29 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% GB MIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jason Spriggs (GB T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Equanimeous St. Brown (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN C), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (MIN CB), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 40% · Packers 60%

Final margin
Packers by 5
Luck in points
3.9 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 38% · Packers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Vikings · Packers

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