luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Dolphins, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Dolphins 43–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 10 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.1 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 91% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 8:32 left): S. Gostkowski missed 48-yard field goal, worth 11 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

New England Patriots 43
Miami Dolphins 0

September 15, 2019 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −18

Luck index +2 Patriots about even · −2 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 NE 49 MIA 10
  2. 2 NE 45 MIA 14
  3. 3 NE 33 MIA 7
  4. 4 NE 33 MIA 10
  5. 5 NE 29 MIA 9
  6. 6 NE 34 MIA 17
  7. 7 NE 23 MIA 9
  8. 8 NE 25 MIA 13
  9. 9 NE 27 MIA 20
  10. 10 NE 31 MIA 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 98% of them, Dolphins 2%. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 43.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+79.7%
Patriots by 9–1613.2%
Patriots by 1–85.0%
Level after regulation0.4%
Dolphins by 1–81.3%
Dolphins by 9–160.4%
Dolphins by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 43. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 52.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Gostkowski, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 55%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +4% NE MIA: Punt
2 Q1 8:33 Defensive Holding on the Dolphins (Xavien Howard), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 79 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +3% NE NE: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:50 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +4% NE MIA: Punt
4 Q2 8:32 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expectedS. Gostkowski missed 48-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +11% MIA NE: Missed field goal
5 Q2 7:42 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% NE MIA: Punt
6 Q2 6:38 The Patriots converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:35 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +2% NE MIA: Punt
8 Q3 11:37 The Patriots converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +2% NE NE: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Reshad Jones (MIA FS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out · 0.7 pts
  • David Andrews (NE C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Dolphins 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 43
Luck in points
9.4 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 52.4
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 98% · Dolphins 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Patriots · Dolphins

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