AFC East
Miami Dolphins: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Dolphins have won 59 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 52.1. Luck added 6.9 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+3.3 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−1.3).
2026: 0–2 so far, replay wins 0.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–2 | 0.6 | −0.6 | 0–0 | +0.36 | – |
| 2025 | 7–10 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 4–3 | −0.92 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 6.7 | +1.3 | 4–4 | −0.34 | – |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 12.3 | −1.3 | 4–3 | −0.97 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 9.4 | −0.4 | 6–5 | −0.10 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 4–3 | +0.85 | – |
| 2020 | 10–6 | 6.7 | +3.3 | 3–4 | +1.76 | – |
| 2019 | 5–11 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 5–2 | +2.23 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Dolphins take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 8 | vs Rams | W 28–17 | 5% | +95 |
| 2019 Week 10 | @ Colts | W 16–12 | 8% | +92 |
| 2020 Week 16 | @ Raiders | W 26–25 | 9% | +91 |
| 2024 Week 16 | vs 49ers | W 29–17 | 27% | +73 |
| 2021 Week 18 | vs Patriots | W 33–24 | 28% | +72 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Dolphins would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Week 14 | vs Titans | L 27–28 | 95% | −95 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Vikings | L 16–24 | 73% | −73 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Patriots | L 27–33 | 72% | −72 |
| 2022 Week 17 | @ Patriots | L 21–23 | 59% | −59 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Raiders | L 13–27 | 55% | −55 |
