AFC East
Miami Dolphins: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Dolphins have won 59 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 51.2. Luck added 7.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2020 (+3.4 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−1.2).
2026: 1–7 so far, replay wins 2.5 (−1.5 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–7 | 2.5 | −1.5 | 1–3 | −0.43 | – |
| 2025 | 7–10 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 4–3 | −0.91 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 6.8 | +1.2 | 4–4 | −0.08 | – |
| 2023 | 11–6 | 12.2 | −1.2 | 4–3 | −0.14 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 9–8 | 8.7 | +0.3 | 6–5 | +0.38 | 0–1 |
| 2021 | 9–8 | 6.6 | +2.4 | 4–3 | −0.13 | – |
| 2020 | 10–6 | 6.6 | +3.4 | 3–4 | +0.62 | – |
| 2019 | 5–11 | 3.7 | +1.3 | 5–2 | +0.94 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +0.3 | +0.35 | +0.77 | −0.27 | −0.45 | −0.16 | −0.09 |
| 2024 | +1.2 | −0.13 | −0.32 | +0.24 | −0.04 | −0.79 | +0.03 |
| 2023 | −1.2 | +0.69 | −0.18 | +0.16 | −0.07 | −0.35 | +0.23 |
| 2022 | +0.3 | −0.24 | −0.28 | −0.52 | +0.19 | −0.59 | −0.21 |
| 2021 | +2.4 | +0.58 | −0.64 | 0.00 | −0.06 | +0.40 | +0.11 |
| 2020 | +3.4 | +0.43 | +0.85 | 0.00 | +0.31 | +0.31 | +0.24 |
| 2019 | +1.3 | +0.01 | −0.08 | 0.00 | +0.47 | −0.03 | −0.16 |
| Since 2019 | +7.8 | +1.70 | +0.11 | −0.39 | +0.34 | −1.21 | +0.17 |
Are the Dolphins lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Dolphins have won 59 regular-season games from play worth 51.2: +7.8 wins of luck, the 4th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Dolphins been so lucky?
Most of it came from fumble bounces (+1.7 wins) and judgment calls (+0.3 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 30–24 since 2019, where the replays give them 24.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Dolphins’ luckiest season?
2020: 10–6 from play worth 6.6 wins, +3.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2023: 11–6 from play worth 12.2 (−1.2).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Dolphins’ luckiest wins
Wins the Dolphins take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 8 | vs Rams | W 28–17 | 5% | +95 |
| 2019 Week 10 | @ Colts | W 16–12 | 8% | +92 |
| 2020 Week 16 | @ Raiders | W 26–25 | 8% | +92 |
| 2024 Week 5 | @ Patriots | W 15–10 | 16% | +84 |
| 2020 Week 10 | vs Chargers | W 29–21 | 26% | +74 |
The Dolphins’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Dolphins would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 Week 14 | vs Titans | L 27–28 | 96% | −96 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Vikings | L 16–24 | 77% | −77 |
| 2024 Week 3 | @ Seahawks | L 3–24 | 64% | −64 |
| 2026 Week 8 | vs Patriots | L 19–24 | 58% | −58 |
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Patriots | L 27–33 | 56% | −56 |
