luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Dolphins, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins beat the Chargers 29–21, but the Chargers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 13:06 left): Blocked punt by the Dolphins, worth 10 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 21
Miami Dolphins 29

November 15, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Dolphins −1

Luck index +71 Dolphins very lucky · −71 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Dolphins win 3.

  1. 1 LAC 31 MIA 3
  2. 2 LAC 26 MIA 7
  3. 3 LAC 23 MIA 9
  4. 4 LAC 27 MIA 17
  5. 5 LAC 23 MIA 16
  6. 6 LAC 17 MIA 13
  7. 7 LAC 23 MIA 21
  8. 8 LAC 14 MIA 17
  9. 9 LAC 23 MIA 30
  10. 10 LAC 8 MIA 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 71% of them, Dolphins 29%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+22.3%
Chargers by 9–1621.5%
Chargers by 1–826.3%
Level after regulation4.1%
Dolphins by 1–814.9%
Dolphins by 9–167.1%
Dolphins by 17+3.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 50 yds made · 71% expected
  • J. Sanders, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Sanders, 47 yds missed · 77% expected
  • J. Sanders, 49 yds made · 73% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:06 Blocked punt by the DolphinsSpecial teams +10% MIA MIA: Touchdown
2 Q1 8:13 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +3% MIA LAC: Punt
3 Q2 14:03 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% MIA MIA: Turnover
4 Q2 10:28 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expectedThe Dolphins fumbled and the Chargers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% LAC MIA: Punt
5 Q2 5:10 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +3% MIA LAC: Touchdown
6 Q2 4:27 The Chargers converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
7 Q4 14:20 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +6% MIA LAC: Punt
8 Q4 11:44 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% MIA MIA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Preston Williams (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Wilkins (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Davon Godchaux (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Myles Gaskin (MIA RB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Joey Bosa (LAC DE), out · 0.9 pts
  • Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 10% · Dolphins 90%

Final margin
Dolphins by 8
Luck in points
1.6 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 71% · Dolphins 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Chargers · Dolphins

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