luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Rams, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Seahawks 23–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Seahawks had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.6 points to the Seahawks.

Before kickoff the Rams were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:47 left): Defensive Offside on the Rams (Leonard Floyd), 5 yards, wiping out the play, worth 13 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 16
Los Angeles Rams 23

November 15, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3

Luck index +40 Rams lucky · −40 Seahawks

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 4, Rams win 6.

  1. 1 SEA 30 LA 13
  2. 2 SEA 20 LA 10
  3. 3 SEA 40 LA 34
  4. 4 SEA 26 LA 24
  5. 5 SEA 31 LA 34
  6. 6 SEA 23 LA 28
  7. 7 SEA 24 LA 33
  8. 8 SEA 24 LA 36
  9. 9 SEA 20 LA 37
  10. 10 SEA 10 LA 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 40% of them, Rams 60%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+6.1%
Seahawks by 9–1611.7%
Seahawks by 1–820.3%
Level after regulation3.3%
Rams by 1–827.8%
Rams by 9–1616.3%
Rams by 17+14.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 6.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Forbath, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Myers, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • J. Myers, 61 yds made · 57% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 90% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

As low as 37% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:19 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% SEA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:32 The Rams converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +11% LA LA: Touchdown
3 Q1 1:47 Defensive Offside on the Rams (Leonard Floyd), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1393 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +13% SEA SEA: Punt
4 Q2 2:58 The Rams fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% SEA LA: Punt
5 Q2 0:02 J. Myers made 61-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 8 of 13 from 45+ before +7% SEA SEA: Punt
6 Q3 11:04 The Rams converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% LA LA: Touchdown
7 Q4 13:40 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Seahawks fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% LA SEA: Turnover
8 Q4 7:59 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedDelay of Game on the Seahawks, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% LA SEA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Shaquill Griffin (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Benson Mayowa (SEA DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Carson (SEA RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ethan Pocic (SEA G/C), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 3% · Rams 97%

Final margin
Rams by 7
Luck in points
0.6 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 40% · Rams 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Seahawks · Rams

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