luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Cardinals, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Bills 32–30 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Bills had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.3 points to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:53 left): Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
Arizona Cardinals 32

November 15, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +31 Cardinals lucky · −31 Bills

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 3, Cardinals win 7.

  1. 1 BUF 53 ARI 35
  2. 2 BUF 29 ARI 20
  3. 3 BUF 48 ARI 45
  4. 4 BUF 34 ARI 36
  5. 5 BUF 33 ARI 37
  6. 6 BUF 30 ARI 37
  7. 7 BUF 19 ARI 30
  8. 8 BUF 24 ARI 39
  9. 9 BUF 24 ARI 42
  10. 10 BUF 18 ARI 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 31% of them, Cardinals 69%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+5.9%
Bills by 9–168.6%
Bills by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation3.6%
Cardinals by 1–823.9%
Cardinals by 9–1619.3%
Cardinals by 17+24.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 3.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • T. Bass, 54 yds made · 66% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 42 yds made · 86% expected
  • T. Bass, 55 yds made · 65% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • T. Bass, 58 yds made · 61% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 45 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cardinals’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cardinals were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:52 The Bills converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +12% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q2 1:48 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +8% ARI ARI: Field goal
3 Q4 7:53 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q4 5:29 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +13% BUF ARI: Punt
5 Q4 4:47 Offensive Holding on the Bills (Siran Neal), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 657 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +8% ARI ARI: Punt
6 Q4 4:23 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +9% BUF ARI: Punt
7 Q4 1:57 The Bills converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:49 Defensive Offside on the Cardinals, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chandler Jones (ARI LB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Murray (ARI OL), out · 0.2 pts
  • Deionte Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Levi Wallace (BUF CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Norman (BUF DB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cody Ford (BUF T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Matt Milano (BUF LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyler Kroft (BUF TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 24% · Cardinals 76%

Final margin
Cardinals by 2
Luck in points
1.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Bills 31% · Cardinals 69% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Bills · Cardinals

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