Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Patriots, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?
The Patriots beat the Ravens 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Ravens had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Ravens.
An off day for the Ravens: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Ravens were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 1:05 left): Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 8 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Patriots.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 17 |
|---|---|
 New England Patriots | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +8 Patriots about even · −8 Ravens
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 1, Patriots win 9.
- 1 BAL 27 NE 20
- 2 BAL 19 NE 22
- 3 BAL 17 NE 23
- 4 BAL 17 NE 26
- 5 BAL 17 NE 29
- 6 BAL 9 NE 24
- 7 BAL 13 NE 30
- 8 BAL 17 NE 37
- 9 BAL 3 NE 28
- 10 BAL 7 NE 41
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Ravens
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Patriots they would win 63% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
56 points apart for the Ravens: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ravens offenseEPA per play gained | +0.11 | +0.18 | worse by 0.07 |
| Ravens defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.20 | +0.06 | worse by 0.15 |
| Patriots offenseEPA per play gained | +0.20 | +0.11 | better by 0.09 |
| Patriots defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.11 | +0.12 | better by 0.01 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 7% of them, Patriots 93%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 6.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 0.4% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 1.6% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 5.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.8% |
| Patriots by 1–8 | 15.3% |
| Patriots by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Patriots by 17+ | 54.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Patriots by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 5.5.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Tucker, 24 yds made · 100% expected
- N. Folk, 20 yds made · 99% expected
- Extra point missed · 93% expected
When it happened
Patriots’ chance of winning
As low as 38% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 9:50 | The Patriots converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected | +8% NE | NE: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 8:30 | The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +6% BAL | NE: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 6:57 | Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Patriots, 9 yardsJudgment calls | +5% BAL | BAL: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:41 | The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +6% NE | BAL: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 2:00 | The Patriots converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected | +6% NE | NE: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q2 0:37 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected | +5% BAL | BAL: Turnover |
| 7 | Q4 6:01 | The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% BAL | BAL: Punt |
| 8 | Q4 1:05 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 8 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +22% NE | NE: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out · 1.3 pts
- Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Ja'Whaun Bentley (NE LB), out · 0.4 pts
- Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out · 0.7 pts
- Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Tyre Phillips (BAL G/T), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 14% · Patriots 86%
- Final margin
- Patriots by 6
- Luck in points
- 0.5 for the Patriots
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Patriots by 5.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 7% · Patriots 93% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · 
Ravens · 
Patriots
More from Week 10 2020
- Colts at Titans IND 34–17 · replay 67% for the winner
- Texans at Browns CLE 10–7 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jaguars at Packers GB 24–20 · replay 87% for the winner
- Eagles at Giants NYG 27–17 · replay 84% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 46–23 · replay 69% for the winner
- Washington at Lions DET 30–27 · replay 84% for the winner
- Bills at Cardinals ARI 32–30 · replay 69% for the winner
- Broncos at Raiders LV 37–12 · replay 93% for the winner
- Chargers at Dolphins MIA 29–21 · replay 29% for the winner
- Bengals at Steelers PIT 36–10 · replay 88% for the winner
- Seahawks at Rams LA 23–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- 49ers at Saints NO 27–13 · replay 36% for the winner
- Vikings at Bears MIN 19–13 · replay 91% for the winner