luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 16, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Bears, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Bears 19–13, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9.7 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:54 left): Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 22 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 19
Chicago Bears 13

November 16, 2020 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Vikings −3.5

Luck index +9 Vikings about even · −9 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Bears win 1.

  1. 1 MIN 52 CHI 21
  2. 2 MIN 30 CHI 7
  3. 3 MIN 27 CHI 9
  4. 4 MIN 29 CHI 13
  5. 5 MIN 16 CHI 3
  6. 6 MIN 26 CHI 16
  7. 7 MIN 10 CHI 3
  8. 8 MIN 20 CHI 16
  9. 9 MIN 20 CHI 17
  10. 10 MIN 17 CHI 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 91% of them, Bears 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+51.7%
Vikings by 9–1621.3%
Vikings by 1–817.0%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bears by 1–85.5%
Bears by 9–162.2%
Bears by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 12.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Santos, 42 yds made · 82% expected
  • D. Bailey, 37 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Bailey, 43 yds made · 81% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q3 15:00 Return touchdown by the BearsSpecial teams +17% CHI CHI: Touchdown
2 Q3 11:54 The Bears fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% MIN CHI: Punt
3 Q3 3:54 Offensive Holding on the Vikings (Kyle Rudolph), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1357 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +22% CHI CHI: Punt
4 Q3 3:31 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +20% MIN MIN: Field goal
5 Q3 0:47 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% MIN CHI: Punt
6 Q4 10:10 The Vikings converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +19% MIN MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 6:29 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +9% CHI CHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 2:10 The Bears were stopped on 4th & 93rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +11% MIN CHI: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • David Montgomery (CHI RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sam Mustipher (CHI OL), out · 0.3 pts
  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Dantzler (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Dru Samia (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 93% · Bears 7%

Final margin
Vikings by 6
Luck in points
6.8 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 12.8
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 91% · Bears 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Vikings · Bears

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