luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Panthers, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Panthers 46–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 12:43 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 1, worth 12 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 46
Carolina Panthers 23

November 15, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −6

Luck index +31 Buccaneers lucky · −31 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 7, Panthers win 3.

  1. 1 TB 41 CAR 13
  2. 2 TB 40 CAR 21
  3. 3 TB 17 CAR 3
  4. 4 TB 30 CAR 20
  5. 5 TB 34 CAR 27
  6. 6 TB 21 CAR 17
  7. 7 TB 16 CAR 14
  8. 8 TB 24 CAR 27
  9. 9 TB 9 CAR 18
  10. 10 TB 10 CAR 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 69% of them, Panthers 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+22.4%
Buccaneers by 9–1620.6%
Buccaneers by 1–824.6%
Level after regulation4.0%
Panthers by 1–814.7%
Panthers by 9–168.8%
Panthers by 17+5.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 19.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 46 yds made · 73% expected
  • R. Succop, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Succop, 40 yds made · 84% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 75%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:36 The Buccaneers fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CAR TB: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:25 The Panthers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 6:56 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q1 3:43 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% TB TB: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:14 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +5% TB TB: Field goal
6 Q2 3:16 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:43 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +12% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q3 6:19 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 193rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +6% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ali Marpet (TB G), out · 0.6 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 23
Luck in points
3.6 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 19.4
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 69% · Panthers 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Buccaneers · Panthers

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