luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Lions, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat Washington 30–27, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.9 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): M. Prater made 59-yard field goal, worth 19 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Washington Football Team 27
Detroit Lions 30

November 15, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +16 Lions about even · −16 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 20 DET 10
  2. 2 WAS 27 DET 24
  3. 3 WAS 17 DET 19
  4. 4 WAS 26 DET 30
  5. 5 WAS 20 DET 27
  6. 6 WAS 28 DET 38
  7. 7 WAS 14 DET 27
  8. 8 WAS 10 DET 26
  9. 9 WAS 20 DET 41
  10. 10 WAS 6 DET 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 16% of them, Lions 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.5%
Washington by 9–163.9%
Washington by 1–810.4%
Level after regulation1.1%
Lions by 1–825.2%
Lions by 9–1622.7%
Lions by 17+35.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Lions by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Lions by 0.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 84% expected
  • M. Prater, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 87% expected
  • M. Prater, 59 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 12:01 The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +9% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q4 2:42 M. Prater made 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +8% DET DET: Field goal
3 Q4 2:03 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington, 8 yardsJudgment calls +14% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 1:56 Washington converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +14% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 663 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 663 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 0:54 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +14% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 M. Prater made 59-yard field goalKicks · 58% expected for him, 15 of 24 from 45+ before +19% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out, replaced by a.smith · 2.1 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 38% · Lions 62%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
2.8 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Lions by 0.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington 16% · Lions 84% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Washington · Lions

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