luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Lions, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Lions beat Washington 30–27, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Lions win 8 of 10. Washington had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 8 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the Lions were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:03 left): M. Prater made a 59-yard field goal, worth 18 points of win probability to the Lions.

Final

Washington Football Team 27
Detroit Lions 30

November 15, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Lions −2.5

Luck index +18 Lions about even · −18 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 2, Lions win 8.

  1. 1 WAS 29 DET 16
  2. 2 WAS 20 DET 17
  3. 3 WAS 23 DET 26
  4. 4 WAS 6 DET 10
  5. 5 WAS 27 DET 34
  6. 6 WAS 17 DET 27
  7. 7 WAS 27 DET 41
  8. 8 WAS 20 DET 36
  9. 9 WAS 10 DET 31
  10. 10 WAS 16 DET 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 18% of them, Lions 82%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+1.8%
Washington by 9–164.9%
Washington by 1–810.8%
Level after regulation1.1%
Lions by 1–824.0%
Lions by 9–1624.8%
Lions by 17+32.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.2 points to the Lions: the final margin was Lions by 3, without the luck Washington by 1.2. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
  • M. Prater, 53 yds made · 67% expected
  • M. Prater, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Prater, 59 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 6 for 58 yards, Lions 9 for 55 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:20 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on Washington (Kevin Pierre-Louis), 15 yards, wiping out the play +6% DET +2.2 pts
Q1 0:37 Delay of Game on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 1:28 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Austin Bryant), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.3 pts
Q2 0:43 Illegal Forward Pass on the Lions (Danny Amendola), 5 yards +1% WAS +0.4 pts
Q3 13:35 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards +1% WAS +0.9 pts
Q3 5:36 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Lions (Austin Bryant), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.7 pts
Q3 3:21 False Start on Washington (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DET +0.2 pts
Q4 11:21 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +2.0 pts
Q4 6:22 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Jayron Kearse), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.1 pts
Q4 2:37 Offensive Holding on Washington (James Smith-Williams), 10 yards +6% DET +0.9 pts
Q4 2:03 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington, 8 yards +14% DET +1.4 pts
Q4 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yards +13% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yards +10% WAS +1.0 pts
Q4 0:31 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DET +0.6 pts
Q4 0:12 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Chase Young), 15 yards +3% DET +0.3 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 2:47 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% WAS DET: Field goal
2 Q4 2:42 M. Prater made a 37-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +8% DET DET: Field goal
3 Q4 2:03 Illegal Use of Hands on Washington, 8 yardsJudgment calls +14% DET DET: Field goal
4 Q4 1:56 Washington converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +14% WAS WAS: Field goal
5 Q4 1:19 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 663 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% WAS WAS: Field goal
6 Q4 1:06 Defensive Holding on the Lions (Desmond Trufant), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 663 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% WAS WAS: Field goal
7 Q4 0:54 Washington converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +14% WAS WAS: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 M. Prater made a 59-yard field goalKicks · 61% expected for him, 15 of 24 from 45+ before +18% DET –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out, replaced by a.smith · 2.1 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dontrelle Inman (WAS WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 49% · Lions 51%

Final margin
Lions by 3
Luck in points
4.2 for the Lions
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
Washington 18% · Lions 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Washington · Lions

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