luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

49ers at Saints, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the 49ers 27–13, but the 49ers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 6.9 points to the Saints.

The Saints won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Saints were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:59 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 12, worth 9 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

San Francisco 49ers 13
New Orleans Saints 27

November 15, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −9.5

Luck index +64 Saints very lucky · −64 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. 49ers win 6, Saints win 4.

  1. 1 SF 30 NO 6
  2. 2 SF 30 NO 12
  3. 3 SF 26 NO 12
  4. 4 SF 26 NO 17
  5. 5 SF 34 NO 29
  6. 6 SF 19 NO 17
  7. 7 SF 23 NO 26
  8. 8 SF 24 NO 30
  9. 9 SF 17 NO 29
  10. 10 SF 33 NO 52

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Saints won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the 49ers they would win 74% of the time; with this day’s form, 36%.

39 points apart for the Saints: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
49ers offenseEPA per play gained −0.08 +0.17 worse by 0.25
49ers defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.07 better by 0.20
Saints offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.16 worse by 0.29
Saints defenseEPA per play allowed −0.08 +0.07 better by 0.15

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

49ers win 64% of them, Saints 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
49ers by 17+19.4%
49ers by 9–1620.2%
49ers by 1–824.0%
Level after regulation2.4%
Saints by 1–817.5%
Saints by 9–1610.8%
Saints by 17+5.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 1.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Gould, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • W. Lutz, 49 yds made · 78% expected
  • W. Lutz, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Gould, 40 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 21% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the 49ers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:48 The Saints fumbled and the 49ers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% SF NO: Field goal
2 Q1 0:15 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% NO SF: Field goal
3 Q2 13:53 W. Lutz made 49-yard field goalKicks · 78% expected for him, 14 of 17 from 45+ before +6% NO NO: Punt
4 Q2 6:52 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +8% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:55 The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% NO SF: Punt
6 Q2 1:15 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +8% NO NO: End of half
7 Q3 6:59 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% NO SF: Punt
8 Q3 3:30 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NO NO: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 3.9 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Deebo Samuel (SF WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Ben Garland (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • K'Waun Williams (SF CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquiski Tartt (SF S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

49ers 14% · Saints 86%

Final margin
Saints by 14
Luck in points
12.8 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 1.2
Replay with same day's form
49ers 64% · Saints 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · 49ers · Saints

More from Week 10 2020