luckadjusted

Week 10 2020 · November 15, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Raiders, Week 10 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Broncos 37–12, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 9 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 6.2 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 12:19 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 5, worth 8 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Denver Broncos 12
Las Vegas Raiders 37

November 15, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +7 Raiders about even · −7 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 1, Raiders win 9.

  1. 1 DEN 27 LV 20
  2. 2 DEN 13 LV 15
  3. 3 DEN 20 LV 26
  4. 4 DEN 10 LV 20
  5. 5 DEN 13 LV 26
  6. 6 DEN 28 LV 44
  7. 7 DEN 26 LV 44
  8. 8 DEN 7 LV 30
  9. 9 DEN 24 LV 52
  10. 10 DEN 21 LV 57

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 7% of them, Raiders 93%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+0.3%
Broncos by 9–161.5%
Broncos by 1–84.8%
Level after regulation0.8%
Raiders by 1–814.1%
Raiders by 9–1620.0%
Raiders by 17+58.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 30.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 50 yds made · 77% expected
  • B. McManus, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 52 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Carlson, 22 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:19 The Raiders converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% LV LV: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:21 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% DEN DEN: Turnover
3 Q1 1:30 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +5% LV DEN: Punt
4 Q2 11:11 The Broncos converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 17% expected +8% DEN DEN: Field goal
5 Q2 0:30 Roughing the Passer on the Raiders (Clelin Ferrell), 12 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1097 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +5% DEN DEN: Turnover
6 Q3 14:15 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% LV LV: Field goal
7 Q3 11:29 The Raiders converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +6% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q3 9:20 D. Carlson made 52-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 6 of 10 from 45+ before +5% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Kolton Miller (LV T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Cory Littleton (LV LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Demar Dotson (DEN T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN NT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 0% · Raiders 100%

Final margin
Raiders by 25
Luck in points
5.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 30.3
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 7% · Raiders 93% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 10 2020 games · Broncos · Raiders

More from Week 10 2020