2020 season · final

Chicago Bears, 2020: game by game

The Bears went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 4.8 wins. Luck added 3.2: the 3rd-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 6–5.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.

Every game

How often the Bears win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	@ Lions	W 27–23	26%	+74
Week 2	vs Giants	W 17–13	22%	+78
Week 3	@ Falcons	W 30–26	18%	+82
Week 4	vs Colts	L 11–19	40%	−40
Week 5	vs Buccaneers	W 20–19	42%	+58
Week 6	@ Panthers	W 23–16	21%	+79
Week 7	@ Rams	L 10–24	22%	−22
Week 8	vs Saints	L 23–26	24%	−24
Week 9	@ Titans	L 17–24	13%	−13
Week 10	vs Vikings	L 13–19	9%	−9
Week 12	@ Packers	L 25–41	3%	−3
Week 13	vs Lions	L 30–34	12%	−12
Week 14	vs Texans	W 36–7	88%	+12
Week 15	@ Vikings	W 33–27	43%	+57
Week 16	@ Jaguars	W 41–17	88%	+12
Week 17	vs Packers	L 16–35	6%	−6
Wild Card	@ Saints	L 9–21	20%	−20

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +74 @ DET

Wk 2 +78 vs NYG

Wk 3 +82 @ ATL

Wk 4 −40 vs IND

Wk 5 +58 vs TB

Wk 6 +79 @ CAR

Wk 7 −22 @ LA

Wk 8 −24 vs NO

Wk 9 −13 @ TEN

Wk 10 −9 vs MIN

Wk 12 −3 @ GB

Wk 13 −12 vs DET

Wk 14 +12 vs HOU

Wk 15 +57 @ MIN

Wk 16 +12 @ JAX

Wk 17 −6 vs GB

Wild Card −20 @ NO

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Bears’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Kicks	+19.3	+1.21
Injuries	+14.1	+0.88
Fumble bounces	+12.6	+0.79
Judgment calls	+9.6	+0.60
Rest	+1.2	+0.07
3rd & 4th downs	−2.3	−0.14