Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Bears, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Bears 26–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 29 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Saints were 66% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:18 left): C. Santos made a 51-yard field goal, worth 31 points of win probability to the Bears.
Final (OT)
 New Orleans Saints | 26 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Saints about even · −25 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 8, Bears win 2.
- 1 NO 33 CHI 3
- 2 NO 35 CHI 12
- 3 NO 38 CHI 21
- 4 NO 20 CHI 7
- 5 NO 33 CHI 22
- 6 NO 35 CHI 28
- 7 NO 29 CHI 25
- 8 NO 23 CHI 21
- 9 NO 10 CHI 13
- 10 NO 20 CHI 33
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 75% of them, Bears 25%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 31.2% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 19.0% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 24.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.6% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 11.7% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 7.6% |
| Bears by 17+ | 3.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 38 yds made · 87% expected
- C. Santos, 44 yds made · 75% expected
- W. Lutz, 27 yds missed · 96% expected
- C. Santos, 29 yds made · 94% expected
- W. Lutz, 27 yds made · 96% expected
- W. Lutz, 39 yds made · 86% expected
- C. Santos, 51 yds made · 57% expected
- W. Lutz, 35 yds made · 91% expected
Penalties: Saints 5 for 45 yards, Bears 7 for 53 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 1:13 | Illegal Wedge on the Saints, 12 yards | +3% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:18 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kyle Fuller), 13 yards | +2% NO +0.4 pts |
| Q3 12:14 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% NO +0.8 pts |
| Q3 11:15 | False Start on the Bears (Cordarrelle Patterson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% NO +0.2 pts |
| Q3 9:11 | Disqualification on the Bears (Javon Wims), 15 yards | +3% NO +1.1 pts |
| Q3 3:26 | Delay of Game on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% NO +0.4 pts |
| Q4 15:00 | False Start on the Bears (Jimmy Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% NO +0.9 pts |
| Q4 4:57 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Demario Davis), 13 yards | +8% CHI +3.1 pts |
| OT 8:25 | Offensive Holding on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards | +7% CHI +0.8 pts |
| OT 6:59 | Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +7% CHI +0.7 pts |
| OT 1:51 | Illegal Contact on the Bears (Buster Skrine), 5 yards | +13% NO +0.9 pts |
| OT 1:40 | Delay of Game on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap | +11% NO +1.8 pts |
Saints penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 88%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q3 7:05 | The Saints converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected | +12% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 2 | Q3 1:33 | The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected | +13% CHI | NO: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 1:38 | The Bears converted 4th & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +17% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 0:38 | The Bears converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected | +22% CHI | CHI: Field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:18 | C. Santos made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 5 of 10 from 45+ before | +31% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 6 | OT 5:21 | The Bears converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +19% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 7 | OT 1:51 | Illegal Contact on the Bears (Buster Skrine), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 1228 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 | +13% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 8 | OT 1:40 | W. Lutz made a 35-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for himDelay of Game on the Saints, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +20% NO | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cody Whitehair (CHI OL), out · 0.5 pts
- James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.2 pts
- Emmanuel Sanders (NO WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Nick Easton (NO C/G), out · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 87% · Bears 13%
- Final margin
- Saints by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.9 for the Bears
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Saints by 7.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 75% · Bears 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · 
Saints · 
Bears
More from Week 8 2020
- Falcons at Panthers ATL 25–17 · replay 37% for the winner
- Colts at Lions IND 41–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Rams at Dolphins MIA 28–17 · replay 5% for the winner
- Raiders at Browns LV 16–6 · replay 85% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers MIN 28–22 · replay 74% for the winner
- Patriots at Bills BUF 24–21 · replay 90% for the winner
- Jets at Chiefs KC 35–9 · replay 99% for the winner
- Steelers at Ravens PIT 28–24 · replay 35% for the winner
- Titans at Bengals CIN 31–20 · replay 8% for the winner
- Chargers at Broncos DEN 31–30 · replay 17% for the winner
- 49ers at Seahawks SEA 37–27 · replay 57% for the winner
- Cowboys at Eagles PHI 23–9 · replay 64% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Giants TB 25–23 · replay 53% for the winner