luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Lions, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Lions 41–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 8 of 10. The Lions had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Lions.

Before kickoff the Colts were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 2:34 left): the Lions were stopped on 3rd & 9, worth 27 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 41
Detroit Lions 21

November 1, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Colts −3.5

Luck index +19 Colts about even · −19 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 8, Lions win 2.

  1. 1 IND 36 DET 7
  2. 2 IND 37 DET 14
  3. 3 IND 42 DET 24
  4. 4 IND 32 DET 17
  5. 5 IND 20 DET 9
  6. 6 IND 30 DET 23
  7. 7 IND 27 DET 23
  8. 8 IND 30 DET 28
  9. 9 IND 23 DET 26
  10. 10 IND 28 DET 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 81% of them, Lions 19%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 20.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+33.9%
Colts by 9–1620.2%
Colts by 1–824.7%
Level after regulation2.2%
Lions by 1–811.9%
Lions by 9–165.5%
Lions by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 20. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 12.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Prater, 48 yds missed · 76% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:54 The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:29 Blocked punt by the LionsSpecial teams +8% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q2 7:04 Unnecessary Roughness on the Lions (Danny Shelton), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 4 flags in 932 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 +6% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:11 The Lions converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% DET DET: Punt
5 Q3 5:44 The Lions fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% DET DET: Turnover
6 Q3 2:34 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Lions fumbled and the Colts recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% IND DET: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions, 41 yardsJudgment calls +10% IND IND: Touchdown
8 Q4 13:34 The Colts’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expectedReturn touchdown by the ColtsSpecial teams +7% IND IND: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • John Atkins (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darryl Roberts (DET CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Bryant (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Malik Hooker (IND FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 99% · Lions 1%

Final margin
Colts by 20
Luck in points
8.0 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 12.0
Replay with same day's form
Colts 81% · Lions 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Colts · Lions

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