luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2020 NFL season · October 29, 2020–November 2

Week 8 2020: who deserved to win

5 of 14 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Falcons beat the Panthers 25–17 in a game they win 37% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 8 2020 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 2 of 7 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Bengals 31–20 vs Titans 29% 8% Lucky
Vikings 28–22 @ Packers 34% 74% Deserved
Steelers 28–24 @ Ravens 38% 35% Lucky
Dolphins 28–17 vs Rams 40% 5% Lucky
Broncos 31–30 vs Chargers 41% 17% Lucky
Falcons 25–17 @ Panthers 46% 37% Lucky
Raiders 16–6 @ Browns 47% 85% Deserved

Week 8 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Dolphins W 28–17 vs Rams 5% +95
2 Bengals W 31–20 vs Titans 8% +92
3 Broncos W 31–30 vs Chargers 17% +83
4 Steelers W 28–24 @ Ravens 35% +65
5 Falcons W 25–17 @ Panthers 37% +63
6 Buccaneers W 25–23 @ Giants 53% +47
7 Seahawks W 37–27 vs 49ers 57% +43
8 Eagles W 23–9 vs Cowboys 64% +36
9 Vikings W 28–22 @ Packers 74% +26
10 Saints W 26–23 @ Bears 75% +25
11 Colts W 41–21 @ Lions 80% +20
12 Raiders W 16–6 @ Browns 85% +15
13 Bills W 24–21 vs Patriots 90% +10
14 Chiefs W 35–9 vs Jets 99% +1
15 Jets L 9–35 @ Chiefs 1% −1
16 Patriots L 21–24 @ Bills 10% −10
17 Browns L 6–16 vs Raiders 15% −15
18 Lions L 21–41 vs Colts 20% −20
19 Bears L 23–26 vs Saints 25% −25
20 Packers L 22–28 vs Vikings 26% −26
21 Cowboys L 9–23 @ Eagles 36% −36
22 49ers L 27–37 @ Seahawks 43% −43
23 Giants L 23–25 vs Buccaneers 47% −47
24 Panthers L 17–25 vs Falcons 63% −63
25 Ravens L 24–28 vs Steelers 65% −65
26 Chargers L 30–31 @ Broncos 83% −83
27 Titans L 20–31 @ Bengals 92% −92
28 Rams L 17–28 @ Dolphins 95% −95