2020 season · final

New York Giants, 2020: game by game

The Giants went 6–10 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.8 wins. Luck cost them 0.8: the 14th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–5.

Every game

How often the Giants win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Steelers	L 16–26	71%	−71
Week 2	@ Bears	L 13–17	79%	−79
Week 3	vs 49ers	L 9–36	3%	−3
Week 4	@ Rams	L 9–17	34%	−34
Week 5	@ Cowboys	L 34–37	4%	−4
Week 6	vs Washington	W 20–19	87%	+13
Week 7	@ Eagles	L 21–22	19%	−19
Week 8	vs Buccaneers	L 23–25	47%	−47
Week 9	@ Washington	W 23–20	34%	+66
Week 10	vs Eagles	W 27–17	84%	+16
Week 12	@ Bengals	W 19–17	79%	+21
Week 13	@ Seahawks	W 17–12	54%	+46
Week 14	vs Cardinals	L 7–26	4%	−4
Week 15	vs Browns	L 6–20	23%	−23
Week 16	@ Ravens	L 13–27	8%	−8
Week 17	vs Cowboys	W 23–19	50%	+50

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −71 vs PIT

Wk 2 −79 @ CHI

Wk 3 −3 vs SF

Wk 4 −34 @ LA

Wk 5 −4 @ DAL

Wk 6 +13 vs WAS

Wk 7 −19 @ PHI

Wk 8 −47 vs TB

Wk 9 +66 @ WAS

Wk 10 +16 vs PHI

Wk 12 +21 @ CIN

Wk 13 +46 @ SEA

Wk 14 −4 vs ARI

Wk 15 −23 vs CLE

Wk 16 −8 @ BAL

Wk 17 +50 vs DAL

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Giants’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Kicks	+0.64	+11.7
Injuries	+0.37	+13.1
3rd & 4th downs	+0.14	−2.1
Rest	−0.03	−0.6
Fumble bounces	−0.04	−14.3
Judgment calls	−0.62	−1.7