luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Giants?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.45 points a game to the Giants since 2019, 7th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: −1.85 points a game over 2 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Giants minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262+2.52 6th710 –
202517+1.58 2nd6886 –
202417−0.32 22nd5360 –
202317−0.65 21st5763 –
202217−0.01 16th7066 −1.85 (2)
202117+1.62 4th5267 –
202016−0.20 19th4853 –
201916+0.90 12th6673 –

Biggest calls for the Giants

  1. Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Marcus Peters), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 6 · 60 pts of win probability
  2. Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos, 1 yards · 2025 Week 7 · 39 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (George Pickens), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 2 · 29 pts of win probability
  4. Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 17 · 26 pts of win probability
  5. Illegal Use of Hands on the Bears, 8 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 12 · 22 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Illegal Contact on the Giants (Tre Hawkins), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 11 · 63 pts of win probability
  2. Illegal Use of Hands on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 7 · 55 pts of win probability
  3. Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Golden Tate), 0 yards · 2020 Week 2 · 45 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Adoree' Jackson), 30 yards · 2023 Week 8 · 40 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darius Slayton), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 18 · 30 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Giants?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.45 points a game to the Giants since 2019, 7th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: −1.85 points a game over 2 games, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · New York Giants, every season