luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Cowboys, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 37–34, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:08 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 39 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 34
Dallas Cowboys 37

October 11, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +4 Cowboys about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 0, Cowboys win 10.

  1. 1 NYG 17 DAL 20
  2. 2 NYG 16 DAL 20
  3. 3 NYG 10 DAL 18
  4. 4 NYG 19 DAL 30
  5. 5 NYG 16 DAL 30
  6. 6 NYG 13 DAL 30
  7. 7 NYG 24 DAL 44
  8. 8 NYG 0 DAL 23
  9. 9 NYG 7 DAL 34
  10. 10 NYG 16 DAL 51

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 4% of them, Cowboys 96%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+0.2%
Giants by 9–160.7%
Giants by 1–83.1%
Level after regulation0.4%
Cowboys by 1–89.3%
Cowboys by 9–1620.8%
Cowboys by 17+65.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Gano, 55 yds made · 67% expected
  • G. Gano, 50 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Gano, 54 yds made · 69% expected
  • G. Gano, 28 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 17% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:01 Return touchdown by the GiantsSpecial teams +17% NYG NYG: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 5:08 The Giants fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +39% DAL NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 4:12 The Giants converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% NYG NYG: Field goal
4 Q2 1:01 Illegal Shift on the Giants, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +21% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 9:51 Offensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Damion Ratley), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 435 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +26% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 11:21 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +8% DAL NYG: Field goal
7 Q4 11:03 The Cowboys fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% NYG DAL: Field goal
8 Q4 0:03 G. Zuerlein made 34-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +12% DAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyron Smith (DAL T), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Looney (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 55% · Cowboys 45%

Final margin
Cowboys by 3
Luck in points
2.7 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Giants 4% · Cowboys 96% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Giants · Cowboys

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