luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 8, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Buccaneers at Bears, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bears beat the Buccaneers 20–19, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bears win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.1 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:37 left): the Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 23 points of win probability to the Bears.

Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 19
Chicago Bears 20

October 8, 2020 · Soldier Field · Closing line: Buccaneers −3.5

Luck index +58 Bears lucky · −58 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Buccaneers win 6, Bears win 4.

  1. 1 TB 41 CHI 19
  2. 2 TB 29 CHI 13
  3. 3 TB 14 CHI 3
  4. 4 TB 24 CHI 16
  5. 5 TB 17 CHI 12
  6. 6 TB 12 CHI 10
  7. 7 TB 14 CHI 17
  8. 8 TB 10 CHI 16
  9. 9 TB 8 CHI 20
  10. 10 TB 7 CHI 25

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Buccaneers win 58% of them, Bears 42%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bears by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Buccaneers by 17+13.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1617.0%
Buccaneers by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Bears by 1–820.2%
Bears by 9–1613.2%
Bears by 17+6.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bears by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 7.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 39 yds made · 87% expected
  • R. Succop, 35 yds made · 91% expected
  • R. Succop, 46 yds made · 74% expected
  • C. Santos, 47 yds made · 72% expected
  • R. Succop, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Santos, 38 yds made · 88% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bears’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bears were ahead in it, below while the Buccaneers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 1:37 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe Buccaneers fumbled and the Bears recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% CHI TB: End of half
2 Q3 6:01 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +11% TB TB: Punt
3 Q3 4:55 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% CHI CHI: Field goal
4 Q4 14:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 19 yardsJudgment calls · 14 flags in 1294 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +10% CHI CHI: Field goal
5 Q4 4:52 R. Succop made 25-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +10% CHI TB: Punt
6 Q4 3:58 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers, 15 yardsJudgment calls +10% CHI CHI: Punt
7 Q4 1:54 The Bears converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +16% CHI CHI: Field goal
8 Q4 0:38 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +21% CHI –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 0.9 pts
  • O.J. Howard (TB TE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Watson (TB WR), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Buccaneers 77% · Bears 23%

Final margin
Bears by 1
Luck in points
8.1 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 7.1
Replay with same day's form
Buccaneers 58% · Bears 42% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Buccaneers · Bears

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