luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 11, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Seahawks, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Vikings 27–26 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Vikings had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.7 points to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:20 left): the Seahawks converted 4th & 6, worth 45 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 26
Seattle Seahawks 27

October 11, 2020 · CenturyLink Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +20 Seahawks about even · −20 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Seahawks win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 38 SEA 26
  2. 2 MIN 27 SEA 24
  3. 3 MIN 34 SEA 37
  4. 4 MIN 30 SEA 36
  5. 5 MIN 13 SEA 21
  6. 6 MIN 20 SEA 31
  7. 7 MIN 17 SEA 31
  8. 8 MIN 7 SEA 24
  9. 9 MIN 26 SEA 48
  10. 10 MIN 7 SEA 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 20% of them, Seahawks 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+2.1%
Vikings by 9–164.7%
Vikings by 1–811.5%
Level after regulation1.8%
Seahawks by 1–823.4%
Seahawks by 9–1622.9%
Seahawks by 17+33.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 1. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 1.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 52 yds made · 64% expected
  • D. Bailey, 46 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Seahawks’ chance of winning

As low as 5% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Seahawks were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:55 The Vikings converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:57 The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +8% MIN MIN: Touchdown
3 Q3 9:06 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Vikings fumbled and the Seahawks recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% SEA MIN: Turnover
4 Q4 2:00 The Vikings were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +16% SEA MIN: End of game
5 Q4 1:21 The Seahawks converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +24% SEA SEA: Touchdown
6 Q4 0:24 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +13% MIN SEA: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:20 The Seahawks converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +45% SEA SEA: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:15 The Seahawks’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +10% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Mike Iupati (SEA G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.2 pts
  • Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 51% · Seahawks 49%

Final margin
Seahawks by 1
Luck in points
2.4 for the Seahawks
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 1.4
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 20% · Seahawks 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Vikings · Seahawks

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