Week 5 2020 · October 12, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chargers at Saints, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?
The Saints beat the Chargers 30–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Chargers.
Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:05 left): M. Badgley missed a 50-yard field goal, worth 38 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final (OT)
 Los Angeles Chargers | 27 |
|---|---|
 New Orleans Saints | 30 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +25 Saints lucky · −25 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Saints win 7.
- 1 LAC 31 NO 13
- 2 LAC 55 NO 46
- 3 LAC 32 NO 29
- 4 LAC 31 NO 33
- 5 LAC 45 NO 49
- 6 LAC 32 NO 41
- 7 LAC 31 NO 44
- 8 LAC 34 NO 51
- 9 LAC 31 NO 51
- 10 LAC 14 NO 44
Your call
Did the Saints earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 25% of them, Saints 75%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 3.7% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 6.3% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 13.3% |
| Level after regulation | 2.4% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 18.9% |
| Saints by 17+ | 30.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- W. Lutz, 48 yds made · 78% expected
- W. Lutz, 53 yds made · 71% expected
- M. Badgley, 50 yds missed · 71% expected
- W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 94% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Chargers 1 for 10 yards, Saints 5 for 60 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 13:12 | Roughing the Kicker on the Saints (Dwayne Washington), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +6% LAC +2.0 pts |
| Q2 8:47 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards | +4% NO +1.6 pts |
| Q2 7:01 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +1% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:30 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:50 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards | +3% LAC +0.9 pts |
| OT 5:08 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Malcom Brown), 15 yards | +10% LAC +0.9 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Saints penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Saints’ chance of winning
As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q4 11:29 | The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected | +16% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q4 3:50 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +17% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 0:58 | The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +13% NO | NO: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 0:15 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected | +9% LAC | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 0:05 | The game turned hereM. Badgley missed a 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before | +38% NO | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 6 | OT 5:08 | Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Malcom Brown), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 737 snaps before, position avg 1 per 262 | +10% LAC | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | OT 4:27 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +15% NO | LAC: Turnover on downs |
| 8 | OT 4:23 | The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +29% NO | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.2 pts
- Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 45% · Saints 55%
- Final margin
- Saints by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.1 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 0.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 25% · Saints 75% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · 
Chargers · 
Saints
More from Week 5 2020
- Buccaneers at Bears CHI 20–19 · replay 44% for the winner
- Cardinals at Jets ARI 30–10 · replay 98% for the winner
- Panthers at Falcons CAR 23–16 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bengals at Ravens BAL 27–3 · replay 97% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 30–14 · replay 92% for the winner
- Rams at Washington LA 30–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Raiders at Chiefs LV 40–32 · replay 89% for the winner
- Eagles at Steelers PIT 38–29 · replay 72% for the winner
- Dolphins at 49ers MIA 43–17 · replay 86% for the winner
- Colts at Browns CLE 32–23 · replay 43% for the winner
- Giants at Cowboys DAL 37–34 · replay 96% for the winner
- Vikings at Seahawks SEA 27–26 · replay 80% for the winner
- Bills at Titans TEN 42–16 · replay 49% for the winner