luckadjusted

Week 5 2020 · October 12, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Saints, Week 5 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Chargers 30–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.2 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:50 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 10, worth 41 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final (OT)

Los Angeles Chargers 27
New Orleans Saints 30

October 12, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Superdome · Closing line: Saints −7

Luck index +24 Saints about even · −24 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 2, Saints win 8.

  1. 1 LAC 42 NO 27
  2. 2 LAC 27 NO 24
  3. 3 LAC 39 NO 40
  4. 4 LAC 19 NO 23
  5. 5 LAC 30 NO 37
  6. 6 LAC 13 NO 24
  7. 7 LAC 34 NO 48
  8. 8 LAC 29 NO 47
  9. 9 LAC 33 NO 55
  10. 10 LAC 13 NO 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 24% of them, Saints 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+3.5%
Chargers by 9–166.5%
Chargers by 1–812.6%
Level after regulation2.1%
Saints by 1–825.3%
Saints by 9–1618.3%
Saints by 17+31.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 2.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 48 yds made · 79% expected
  • W. Lutz, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • M. Badgley, 50 yds missed · 73% expected
  • W. Lutz, 36 yds made · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Saints’ chance of winning

As low as 11% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Saints were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 11:29 The Saints converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +32% NO NO: Touchdown
2 Q4 3:50 The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +41% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q4 0:58 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +18% NO NO: Touchdown
4 Q4 0:15 The Chargers converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +22% LAC LAC: Missed field goal
5 Q4 0:05 M. Badgley missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 3 of 6 from 45+ before +39% NO LAC: Turnover on downs
6 QOT 5:11 W. Lutz made 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +34% LAC –
7 QOT 4:27 The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +16% NO LAC: Turnover on downs
8 QOT 4:23 The Chargers were stopped on 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +29% NO –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Thomas (NO WR), out · 1.2 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Austin Ekeler (LAC RB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 30% · Saints 70%

Final margin
Saints by 3
Luck in points
1.0 for the Saints
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 2.0
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 24% · Saints 76% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2020 games · Chargers · Saints

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