2020 season · final
Los Angeles Chargers, 2020: game by game
The Chargers went 7–9 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.2 wins. Luck cost them 1.2: the 12th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–7.
Every game
How often the Chargers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Bengals | W 16–13 | 91% | +10 |
| Week 2 | vs Chiefs | L 20–23 | 62% | −62 |
| Week 3 | vs Panthers | L 16–21 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 4 | @ Buccaneers | L 31–38 | 26% | −26 |
| Week 5 | @ Saints | L 27–30 | 25% | −25 |
| Week 7 | vs Jaguars | W 39–29 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 8 | @ Broncos | L 30–31 | 83% | −83 |
| Week 9 | vs Raiders | L 26–31 | 48% | −48 |
| Week 10 | @ Dolphins | L 21–29 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 11 | vs Jets | W 34–28 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 12 | @ Bills | L 17–27 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 13 | vs Patriots | L 0–45 | 45% | −45 |
| Week 14 | vs Falcons | W 20–17 | 23% | +77 |
| Week 15 | @ Raiders | W 30–27 | 32% | +68 |
| Week 16 | vs Broncos | W 19–16 | 28% | +72 |
| Week 17 | @ Chiefs | W 38–21 | 76% | +24 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Chargers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.93 | +11.0 |
| Injuries | +0.15 | +6.3 |
| Rest | −0.04 | −1.6 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.13 | +8.3 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.37 | −7.3 |
| Kicks | −1.10 | −18.4 |