Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Chargers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?
The Chargers beat the Falcons 20–17, but the Falcons played well enough to win it: they take 8 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Chargers.
The Chargers won on an off day: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%. The numbers
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:53 left): the Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 2, worth 27 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 17 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Chargers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +77 Chargers very lucky · −77 Falcons
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 8, Chargers win 2.
- 1 ATL 34 LAC 7
- 2 ATL 29 LAC 10
- 3 ATL 31 LAC 17
- 4 ATL 24 LAC 14
- 5 ATL 31 LAC 24
- 6 ATL 31 LAC 26
- 7 ATL 13 LAC 10
- 8 ATL 24 LAC 23
- 9 ATL 20 LAC 23
- 10 ATL 15 LAC 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
The Chargers won on an off day
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 54% of the time; with this day’s form, 23%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
31 points apart for the Chargers: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Falcons offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.10 | better by 0.13 |
| Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.13 | better by 0.03 |
| Chargers offenseEPA per play gained | +0.10 | +0.11 | worse by 0.00 |
| Chargers defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.11 | worse by 0.12 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 77% of them, Chargers 23%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chargers by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 22.5% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 23.1% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 28.0% |
| Level after regulation | 5.1% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 14.1% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 5.2% |
| Chargers by 17+ | 2.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Chargers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 1.4.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 45 yds made · 86% expected
- M. Badgley, 35 yds made · 93% expected
- M. Badgley, 43 yds made · 84% expected
When it happened
Chargers’ chance of winning
As low as 23% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:27 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +13% ATL | ATL: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q3 12:30 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expected | +11% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 3 | Q3 1:15 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +19% LAC | LAC: Touchdown |
| 4 | Q4 12:40 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Falcons (Matt Ryan), 10 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1916 snaps before, position avg 1 per 669 | +22% LAC | ATL: Punt |
| 5 | Q4 6:18 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected | +16% ATL | ATL: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 0:53 | The Chargers were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected | +27% ATL | LAC: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:36 | Unnecessary Roughness on the Chargers (Joey Bosa), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 10 flags in 1340 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 | +12% ATL | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:03 | M. Badgley made 43-yard field goalKicks · 84% expected for him | +16% LAC | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Trey Pipkins (LAC T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Ryan Groy (LAC G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
- Kaleb McGary (ATL T), out · 1.2 pts
- Ricardo Allen (ATL S), out · 0.4 pts
- James Carpenter (ATL G), out · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 48% · Chargers 52%
- Final margin
- Chargers by 3
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for the Chargers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 1.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 77% · Chargers 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · 
Falcons · 
Chargers
More from Week 14 2020
- Patriots at Rams LA 24–3 · replay 81% for the winner
- Cardinals at Giants ARI 26–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bengals DAL 30–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers DEN 32–27 · replay 61% for the winner
- Texans at Bears CHI 36–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Dolphins KC 33–27 · replay 66% for the winner
- Vikings at Buccaneers TB 26–14 · replay 85% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars TEN 31–10 · replay 90% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 44–27 · replay 68% for the winner
- Jets at Seahawks SEA 40–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 86% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles PHI 24–21 · replay 31% for the winner
- Washington vs 49ers WAS 23–15 · replay 30% for the winner
- Steelers at Bills BUF 26–15 · replay 76% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 47–42 · replay 64% for the winner