luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 10, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Rams, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Patriots 24–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 8 of 10. The Patriots had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Patriots.

Before kickoff the Rams were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 15:00 left): Return touchdown by the Rams, worth 17 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

New England Patriots 3
Los Angeles Rams 24

December 10, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −5

Luck index +19 Rams about even · −19 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 2, Rams win 8.

  1. 1 NE 36 LA 24
  2. 2 NE 13 LA 10
  3. 3 NE 17 LA 19
  4. 4 NE 17 LA 21
  5. 5 NE 6 LA 13
  6. 6 NE 19 LA 28
  7. 7 NE 9 LA 21
  8. 8 NE 3 LA 19
  9. 9 NE 3 LA 24
  10. 10 NE 10 LA 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 19% of them, Rams 81%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+1.8%
Patriots by 9–164.5%
Patriots by 1–811.3%
Level after regulation1.5%
Rams by 1–825.6%
Rams by 9–1622.1%
Rams by 17+33.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 19.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • N. Folk, 29 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:23 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +7% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:37 The Rams converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q1 1:00 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +6% NE LA: Opp touchdown
4 Q2 15:00 Return touchdown by the RamsSpecial teams +17% LA LA: Opp touchdown
5 Q2 12:10 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +3% LA LA: Punt
6 Q2 6:52 The Patriots were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +4% LA NE: Field goal
7 Q2 2:00 The Patriots fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% NE NE: Field goal
8 Q2 1:08 N. Folk made 29-yard field goalKicks · 97% expected for him +3% LA NE: End of half

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Whitworth (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Rapp (LA S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Kai Forbath (LA K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Micah Kiser (LA ILB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Isaiah Wynn (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Izzo (NE TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 21
Luck in points
1.2 for the Rams
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 19.8
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 19% · Rams 81% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Patriots · Rams

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