luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Lions, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Lions 31–24, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 76% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:03 left): Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Green Bay Packers 31
Detroit Lions 24

December 13, 2020 · Ford Field · Closing line: Packers −9.5

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Lions

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Lions win 1.

  1. 1 GB 45 DET 16
  2. 2 GB 31 DET 10
  3. 3 GB 33 DET 17
  4. 4 GB 34 DET 20
  5. 5 GB 34 DET 23
  6. 6 GB 14 DET 6
  7. 7 GB 23 DET 17
  8. 8 GB 23 DET 19
  9. 9 GB 23 DET 21
  10. 10 GB 6 DET 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 86% of them, Lions 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+33.0%
Packers by 9–1623.3%
Packers by 1–827.8%
Level after regulation2.2%
Lions by 1–88.9%
Lions by 9–163.9%
Lions by 17+1.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 57 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Prater, 32 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Lions’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Lions were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:20 The Lions converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% DET DET: Touchdown
2 Q1 12:29 The Lions converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +6% DET DET: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:24 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
4 Q3 11:32 Offensive Holding on the Packers (Marquez Valdes-Scantling), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1204 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% DET DET: Punt
5 Q3 9:33 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +16% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +10% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q3 5:03 The Lions were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +6% GB DET: Punt
8 Q4 2:03 Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% GB GB: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Desmond Trufant (DET CB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Kenny Golladay (DET WR), out · 0.7 pts
  • Trey Flowers (DET DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrell Crosby (DET OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Halapoulivaati Vaitai (DET T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Danny Shelton (DET DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Okudah (DET CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Corey Linsley (GB C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Raven Greene (GB S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 74% · Lions 26%

Final margin
Packers by 7
Luck in points
5.4 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Packers 86% · Lions 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Packers · Lions

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