luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Buccaneers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Vikings 26–14, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 0:54 left): Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards, wiping out the play, worth 15 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

December 13, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +18 Buccaneers about even · −18 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 24 TB 13
  2. 2 MIN 23 TB 20
  3. 3 MIN 21 TB 23
  4. 4 MIN 30 TB 34
  5. 5 MIN 24 TB 31
  6. 6 MIN 14 TB 24
  7. 7 MIN 10 TB 24
  8. 8 MIN 23 TB 40
  9. 9 MIN 17 TB 38
  10. 10 MIN 0 TB 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 18% of them, Buccaneers 82%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+1.7%
Vikings by 9–164.5%
Vikings by 1–810.6%
Level after regulation2.9%
Buccaneers by 1–827.7%
Buccaneers by 9–1622.1%
Buccaneers by 17+30.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +15.5 points to the Buccaneers: the final margin was Buccaneers by 12, without the luck Vikings by 3.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 36 yds missed · 93% expected
  • D. Bailey, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • R. Succop, 19 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Bailey, 46 yds missed · 77% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Vikings 5 for 71 yards, Buccaneers 5 for 34 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 14:27 Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards +2% MIN +0.7 pts
Q1 3:09 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.7 pts
Q2 11:39 Horse Collar Tackle on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 14 yards +5% MIN +1.3 pts
Q2 4:48 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% TB +0.9 pts
Q2 1:11 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 9 yards +3% TB +1.1 pts
Q2 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards, wiping out the play +15% TB +5.2 pts
Q2 0:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings, 46 yards +6% TB +2.6 pts
Q3 3:14 False Start on the Vikings (Tyler Conklin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TB +0.7 pts
Q3 1:58 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.3 pts
Q3 1:36 False Start on the Buccaneers, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIN +0.8 pts

Vikings penalties, every game · Buccaneers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 10:20 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +5% TB MIN: Missed field goal
2 Q2 9:35 D. Bailey missed a 36-yard field goalKicks · 93% expected for him +11% TB MIN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 7:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% TB MIN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 4:42 D. Bailey missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 10 of 15 from 45+ before +13% TB MIN: Punt
6 Q2 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 784 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +15% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:01 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings, 46 yardsJudgment calls +6% TB TB: Field goal
8 Q4 9:47 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +6% TB MIN: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Rudolph (MIN TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 61% · Buccaneers 39%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 12
Luck in points
15.5 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 18% · Buccaneers 82% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Vikings · Buccaneers

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