luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Vikings at Buccaneers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Vikings 26–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Buccaneers win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:48 left): the Buccaneers converted 3rd & 4, worth 18 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

Minnesota Vikings 14
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 26

December 13, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7

Luck index +15 Buccaneers about even · −15 Vikings

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Vikings win 2, Buccaneers win 8.

  1. 1 MIN 27 TB 17
  2. 2 MIN 31 TB 28
  3. 3 MIN 28 TB 30
  4. 4 MIN 23 TB 27
  5. 5 MIN 20 TB 27
  6. 6 MIN 17 TB 27
  7. 7 MIN 9 TB 21
  8. 8 MIN 16 TB 31
  9. 9 MIN 7 TB 27
  10. 10 MIN 0 TB 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Vikings win 15% of them, Buccaneers 85%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 12.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Vikings by 17+0.8%
Vikings by 9–163.9%
Vikings by 1–810.3%
Level after regulation1.0%
Buccaneers by 1–825.8%
Buccaneers by 9–1625.0%
Buccaneers by 17+33.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 12. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 7.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 36 yds missed · 92% expected
  • D. Bailey, 54 yds missed · 64% expected
  • R. Succop, 19 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Bailey, 46 yds missed · 77% expected
  • R. Succop, 48 yds made · 73% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 22% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Vikings were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:55 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +8% TB MIN: Punt
2 Q2 9:35 D. Bailey missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +11% TB MIN: Missed field goal
3 Q2 7:48 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +18% TB TB: Touchdown
4 Q2 4:48 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 23% expectedFalse Start on the Vikings, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +7% TB MIN: Missed field goal
5 Q2 4:42 D. Bailey missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 64% expected for him, 10 of 15 from 45+ before +13% TB MIN: Punt
6 Q2 0:54 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Jeff Gladney), 6 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 784 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +16% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:00 R. Succop made 19-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +8% MIN TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:47 The Vikings were stopped on 3rd & 203rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +8% TB MIN: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Leonard Fournette (TB RB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyle Rudolph (MIN TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Eric Kendricks (MIN LB), out · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Vikings 72% · Buccaneers 28%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 12
Luck in points
19.3 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 7.3
Replay with same day's form
Vikings 15% · Buccaneers 85% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Vikings · Buccaneers

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