luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington vs 49ers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the 49ers 23–15, but the 49ers played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.7 points to Washington.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:11 left): Return touchdown by Washington, worth 51 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 23
San Francisco 49ers 15

December 13, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3

Luck index +70 Washington very lucky · −70 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 3, 49ers win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 25 SF 7
  2. 2 WAS 21 SF 13
  3. 3 WAS 37 SF 35
  4. 4 WAS 20 SF 22
  5. 5 WAS 21 SF 26
  6. 6 WAS 21 SF 29
  7. 7 WAS 21 SF 33
  8. 8 WAS 13 SF 30
  9. 9 WAS 7 SF 28
  10. 10 WAS 16 SF 43

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 30% of them, 49ers 70%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+5.4%
Washington by 9–168.8%
Washington by 1–814.8%
Level after regulation2.9%
49ers by 1–822.3%
49ers by 9–1618.6%
49ers by 17+27.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 0.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:14 D. Hopkins missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 9 of 14 from 45+ before +10% SF WAS: Punt
2 Q2 5:09 The 49ers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% WAS SF: Punt
3 Q2 1:11 The 49ers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +51% WAS SF: Punt
4 Q3 10:08 D. Hopkins made 21-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +9% SF WAS: Punt
5 Q3 1:09 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +8% SF SF: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 0:01 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +25% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 8:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Ross Dwelley), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1053 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +8% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q4 1:59 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 3.2 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ben Garland (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquiski Tartt (SF S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamar Taylor (SF DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tom Compton (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Hroniss Grasu (SF C), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.3 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 73% · 49ers 27%

Final margin
Washington by 8
Luck in points
7.7 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 0.3
Replay with same day's form
Washington 30% · 49ers 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Washington · 49ers

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