luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington vs 49ers, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the 49ers 23–15, but the replays lean toward the 49ers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran its way: fumble bounces alone were worth 26 points of win probability to Washington.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 59% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q2, 1:11 left): Return touchdown by Washington, worth 51 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 23
San Francisco 49ers 15

December 13, 2020 · State Farm Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −3

Luck index +72 Washington very lucky · −72 49ers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 3, 49ers win 7.

  1. 1 WAS 37 SF 20
  2. 2 WAS 32 SF 23
  3. 3 WAS 20 SF 17
  4. 4 WAS 24 SF 26
  5. 5 WAS 33 SF 37
  6. 6 WAS 34 SF 43
  7. 7 WAS 27 SF 40
  8. 8 WAS 9 SF 25
  9. 9 WAS 20 SF 41
  10. 10 WAS 17 SF 45

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 28% of them, 49ers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+4.3%
Washington by 9–168.7%
Washington by 1–814.0%
Level after regulation3.7%
49ers by 1–823.4%
49ers by 9–1618.5%
49ers by 17+27.3%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.3 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 8, without the luck Washington by 1.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Hopkins, 53 yds missed · 68% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 51 yds made · 69% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 21 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 5 for 30 yards, 49ers 5 for 35 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 2:11 Defensive Offside on Washington (Chase Young), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.4 pts
Q2 13:26 False Start on the 49ers (Kendrick Bourne), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.7 pts
Q2 10:56 False Start on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.6 pts
Q2 6:55 False Start on Washington (Terry McLaurin), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% SF +0.6 pts
Q2 0:28 Illegal Motion on the 49ers, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% WAS +0.4 pts
Q4 14:16 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Montez Sweat), 15 yards +1% SF +1.4 pts
Q4 8:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Ross Dwelley), 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% WAS +1.7 pts
Q4 3:50 False Start on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 0 yards · pre-snap 0% SF 0.0 pts
Q4 1:59 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% WAS +3.3 pts
Q4 1:38 Delay of Game on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% SF +1.9 pts

Washington penalties, every game · 49ers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:26 Washington converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +7% WAS WAS: Missed field goal
2 Q1 5:14 D. Hopkins missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 68% expected for him, 9 of 14 from 45+ before +10% SF WAS: Punt
3 Q2 5:09 The 49ers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% WAS SF: Punt
4 Q2 1:11 The game turned hereThe 49ers fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +51% WAS SF: Punt
5 Q3 1:09 The 49ers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +8% SF SF: Opp touchdown
6 Q3 0:01 Return touchdown by WashingtonSpecial teams +25% WAS WAS: Opp touchdown
7 Q4 8:09 Offensive Holding on the 49ers (Ross Dwelley), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 5 flags in 1053 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +8% WAS WAS: Punt
8 Q4 1:59 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +19% WAS WAS: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out (IR), replaced by n.mullens · 3.2 pts
  • George Kittle (SF TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Ben Garland (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jaquiski Tartt (SF S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamar Taylor (SF DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Tom Compton (SF OL), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Hroniss Grasu (SF C), out · 0.1 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.3 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 79% · 49ers 21%

Final margin
Washington by 8
Luck in points
6.3 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 1.7
Replay with same day's form
Washington 28% · 49ers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Washington · 49ers

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