luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 14, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Browns, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Browns 47–42 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Browns had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:00 left): the Ravens converted 4th & 5, worth 39 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 47
Cleveland Browns 42

December 14, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −3

Luck index +36 Ravens lucky · −36 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Browns win 4.

  1. 1 BAL 47 CLE 23
  2. 2 BAL 34 CLE 17
  3. 3 BAL 45 CLE 32
  4. 4 BAL 33 CLE 23
  5. 5 BAL 26 CLE 20
  6. 6 BAL 41 CLE 38
  7. 7 BAL 27 CLE 30
  8. 8 BAL 27 CLE 34
  9. 9 BAL 20 CLE 33
  10. 10 BAL 24 CLE 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 64% of them, Browns 36%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+19.0%
Ravens by 9–1619.2%
Ravens by 1–824.8%
Level after regulation2.1%
Browns by 1–819.4%
Browns by 9–169.3%
Browns by 17+6.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 1.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 39 yds missed · 83% expected
  • J. Tucker, 55 yds made · 56% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 0:48 Defensive Pass Interference on the Ravens (Jimmy Smith), 11 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 860 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% CLE CLE: Missed field goal
2 Q2 1:27 Offensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Donovan Peoples-Jones), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 234 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +10% BAL BAL: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:52 The Ravens converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% BAL BAL: Touchdown
4 Q4 6:41 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +18% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q4 5:00 The Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +16% BAL BAL: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:12 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +12% CLE BAL: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 The Ravens converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +39% BAL BAL: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:07 J. Tucker made 55-yard field goalKicks · 56% expected for him, 17 of 18 from 45+ before +15% BAL –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts
  • Austin Hooper (CLE TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Ronnie Harrison (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Dez Bryant (BAL WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 58% · Browns 42%

Final margin
Ravens by 5
Luck in points
3.4 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 1.6
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 64% · Browns 36% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Ravens · Browns

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