luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Eagles, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Saints 24–21, but the replays lean toward the Saints: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Saints were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 4:55 left): the Eagles were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 10 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 21
Philadelphia Eagles 24

December 13, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Saints −7.5

Luck index +71 Eagles very lucky · −71 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Eagles win 3.

  1. 1 NO 35 PHI 7
  2. 2 NO 40 PHI 21
  3. 3 NO 45 PHI 31
  4. 4 NO 31 PHI 20
  5. 5 NO 35 PHI 27
  6. 6 NO 24 PHI 19
  7. 7 NO 15 PHI 13
  8. 8 NO 34 PHI 37
  9. 9 NO 27 PHI 34
  10. 10 NO 21 PHI 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 71% of them, Eagles 29%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+25.1%
Saints by 9–1619.1%
Saints by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation3.4%
Eagles by 1–815.8%
Eagles by 9–167.5%
Eagles by 17+4.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +7.0 points to the Eagles: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Saints by 4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 45 yds missed · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds missed · 98% expected
  • W. Lutz, 57 yds missed · 60% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Saints 8 for 52 yards, Eagles 6 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 6:12 Illegal Shift on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% NO +1.6 pts
Q1 5:50 False Start on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% NO +0.8 pts
Q2 13:30 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Kwon Alexander), 15 yards +3% PHI +1.3 pts
Q2 2:00 False Start on the Eagles, 2 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.1 pts
Q2 1:13 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.2 pts
Q2 0:27 Illegal Contact on the Saints (Demario Davis), 5 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q2 0:09 Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Cameron Jordan), 4 yards 0% PHI +0.4 pts
Q3 13:41 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NO +0.5 pts
Q3 10:30 False Start on the Saints, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.8 pts
Q3 9:29 Encroachment on the Eagles (Malik Jackson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NO +0.4 pts
Q4 7:12 Defensive Holding on the Saints (Marshon Lattimore), 2 yards 0% PHI +0.6 pts
Q4 7:07 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Saints, 1 yard · pre-snap +1% PHI +0.2 pts
Q4 7:07 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NO +0.8 pts
Q4 1:24 Unsportsmanlike Conduct on the Saints (C.J. Gardner-Johnson), 15 yards +1% PHI +1.0 pts

Saints penalties, every game · Eagles penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:50 False Start on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1059 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +6% NO NO: Missed field goal
2 Q1 4:55 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +10% NO PHI: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:01 The Saints converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% NO NO: Missed field goal
4 Q1 1:02 W. Lutz missed a 45-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him, 15 of 19 from 45+ before +10% PHI NO: Punt
5 Q1 0:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:30 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Saints (Kwon Alexander), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 909 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:34 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +5% PHI NO: Turnover
8 Q4 9:57 The Saints fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% PHI NO: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 6.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 52% · Eagles 48%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
7.0 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 4.0
Replay with same day's form
Saints 71% · Eagles 29% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Saints · Eagles

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