luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Eagles, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Saints 24–21, but the Saints played well enough to win it: they take 7 of 10 replays with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 4.8 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Saints were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:57 left): the Saints were stopped on 4th & 2, worth 22 points of win probability to the Eagles.

Final

New Orleans Saints 21
Philadelphia Eagles 24

December 13, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Saints −7.5

Luck index +69 Eagles very lucky · −69 Saints

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 7, Eagles win 3.

  1. 1 NO 43 PHI 14
  2. 2 NO 27 PHI 6
  3. 3 NO 43 PHI 27
  4. 4 NO 34 PHI 21
  5. 5 NO 35 PHI 26
  6. 6 NO 19 PHI 13
  7. 7 NO 17 PHI 14
  8. 8 NO 27 PHI 30
  9. 9 NO 17 PHI 27
  10. 10 NO 10 PHI 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 69% of them, Eagles 31%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+24.6%
Saints by 9–1618.6%
Saints by 1–825.1%
Level after regulation3.5%
Eagles by 1–814.6%
Eagles by 9–168.6%
Eagles by 17+4.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 7.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 45 yds missed · 79% expected
  • J. Elliott, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 22 yds missed · 99% expected
  • W. Lutz, 57 yds missed · 57% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:16 The Eagles converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 5:50 False Start on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 1059 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +6% NO NO: Missed field goal
3 Q1 4:55 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +10% NO PHI: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:02 W. Lutz missed 45-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 15 of 19 from 45+ before +10% PHI NO: Punt
5 Q1 0:17 The Eagles converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q2 13:30 The Eagles converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Saints (Kwon Alexander), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 909 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +12% PHI PHI: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:26 The Saints converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
8 Q4 9:57 The Saints were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Saints fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +22% PHI NO: Missed field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • T.J. Edwards (PHI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 6.8 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 71% · Eagles 29%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
10.8 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 7.8
Replay with same day's form
Saints 69% · Eagles 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Saints · Eagles

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