luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Raiders, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Raiders 44–27, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 44
Las Vegas Raiders 27

December 13, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +34 Colts lucky · −34 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 IND 46 LV 21
  2. 2 IND 37 LV 20
  3. 3 IND 24 LV 13
  4. 4 IND 30 LV 21
  5. 5 IND 23 LV 17
  6. 6 IND 23 LV 20
  7. 7 IND 20 LV 18
  8. 8 IND 26 LV 29
  9. 9 IND 14 LV 21
  10. 10 IND 17 LV 33

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 66% of them, Raiders 34%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+16.0%
Colts by 9–1619.5%
Colts by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation2.5%
Raiders by 1–820.8%
Raiders by 9–168.5%
Raiders by 17+3.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.8 points to the Colts: the final margin was Colts by 17, without the luck Colts by 13.3. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Colts 6 for 50 yards, Raiders 6 for 33 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Nick Kwiatkoski), 4 yards 0% IND +0.3 pts
Q1 9:54 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% LV +0.6 pts
Q1 4:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Raiders (Johnathan Abram), 9 yards +4% IND +0.7 pts
Q2 14:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Colts (DeForest Buckner), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.5 pts
Q2 5:40 Horse Collar Tackle on the Colts, 15 yards +6% LV +1.8 pts
Q2 2:40 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yards +5% IND +1.6 pts
Q2 2:02 Encroachment on the Raiders (Johnathan Hankins), 6 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.1 pts
Q2 1:08 False Start on the Colts (Michael Pittman Jr.), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.6 pts
Q4 9:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Raiders (Raekwon McMillan), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +1.3 pts
Q4 9:23 Defensive Offside on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% IND +0.4 pts
Q4 7:44 False Start on the Colts, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.8 pts
Q4 2:22 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Colts (Tavon Wilson), 15 yards 0% LV +1.8 pts

Colts penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:31 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:45 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 3:05 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q2 5:40 Horse Collar Tackle on the Colts, 15 yardsJudgment calls +6% LV LV: Turnover
5 Q2 2:40 Defensive Holding on the Raiders (Trayvon Mullen), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 9 flags in 1541 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q2 0:44 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% IND IND: Field goal
7 Q2 0:27 The Colts converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +6% IND IND: Field goal
8 Q3 14:46 The Raiders converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% LV LV: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Maliek Collins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Carl Nassib (LV DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Heath (LV S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Colts by 17
Luck in points
3.8 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 13.2
Replay with same day's form
Colts 66% · Raiders 34% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Colts · Raiders

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