luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Colts at Raiders, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Raiders 44–27 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Colts were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:35 left): the Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Indianapolis Colts 44
Las Vegas Raiders 27

December 13, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Colts −2.5

Luck index +32 Colts lucky · −32 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Colts win 7, Raiders win 3.

  1. 1 IND 34 LV 10
  2. 2 IND 31 LV 13
  3. 3 IND 33 LV 21
  4. 4 IND 31 LV 23
  5. 5 IND 22 LV 16
  6. 6 IND 30 LV 27
  7. 7 IND 17 LV 16
  8. 8 IND 17 LV 20
  9. 9 IND 24 LV 31
  10. 10 IND 20 LV 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Colts win 68% of them, Raiders 32%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Colts by 17+15.8%
Colts by 9–1621.3%
Colts by 1–828.8%
Level after regulation2.3%
Raiders by 1–820.3%
Raiders by 9–167.7%
Raiders by 17+3.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 13.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 20 yds made · 99% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • D. Carlson, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 35 yds made · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 69%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Colts were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:31 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +10% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 4:45 The Colts converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +7% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q2 13:06 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:35 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +13% IND LV: Field goal
5 Q2 0:44 The Colts converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +8% IND IND: Field goal
6 Q2 0:01 R. Blankenship made 20-yard field goalKicks · 99% expected for him +13% LV IND: Touchdown
7 Q3 2:18 The Raiders converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +10% LV LV: Field goal
8 Q3 0:17 D. Carlson made 23-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +8% IND LV: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brandon Parker (LV T), out · 0.5 pts
  • Maliek Collins (LV DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Carl Nassib (LV DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jeff Heath (LV S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Rigoberto Sanchez (IND P), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Colts 100% · Raiders 0%

Final margin
Colts by 17
Luck in points
3.1 for the Colts
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 13.9
Replay with same day's form
Colts 68% · Raiders 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Colts · Raiders

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