2020 season · final
Indianapolis Colts, 2020: game by game
The Colts went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 0.4: the 14th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Colts win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Jaguars | L 20–27 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 2 | vs Vikings | W 28–11 | 75% | +25 |
| Week 3 | vs Jets | W 36–7 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 4 | @ Bears | W 19–11 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 5 | @ Browns | L 23–32 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 6 | vs Bengals | W 31–27 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 8 | @ Lions | W 41–21 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 9 | vs Ravens | L 10–24 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 10 | @ Titans | W 34–17 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 11 | vs Packers | W 34–31 | 30% | +70 |
| Week 12 | vs Titans | L 26–45 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 13 | @ Texans | W 26–20 | 79% | +21 |
| Week 14 | @ Raiders | W 44–27 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 15 | vs Texans | W 27–20 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 16 | @ Steelers | L 24–28 | 47% | −47 |
| Week 17 | vs Jaguars | W 28–14 | 97% | +3 |
| Wild Card | @ Bills | L 24–27 | 57% | −57 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Colts’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +13.8 | +0.86 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +2.6 | +0.16 |
| Rest | +1.6 | +0.10 |
| Fumble bounces | −3.1 | −0.20 |
| Kicks | −5.4 | −0.34 |
| Judgment calls | −25.4 | −1.59 |