luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Colts, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Colts 45–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10.

An off day for the Colts: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Colts were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:40 left): the Colts converted 3rd & 7, worth 11 points of win probability to the Colts.

Final

Tennessee Titans 45
Indianapolis Colts 26

November 29, 2020 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −3

Luck index +13 Titans about even · −13 Colts

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Colts win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 64 IND 28
  2. 2 TEN 50 IND 23
  3. 3 TEN 31 IND 10
  4. 4 TEN 37 IND 19
  5. 5 TEN 27 IND 12
  6. 6 TEN 34 IND 24
  7. 7 TEN 18 IND 10
  8. 8 TEN 30 IND 25
  9. 9 TEN 37 IND 35
  10. 10 TEN 28 IND 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Colts

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Titans they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.

33 points apart for the Colts: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Titans offenseEPA per play gained +0.62 +0.14 better by 0.48
Titans defenseEPA per play allowed −0.03 +0.15 better by 0.18
Colts offenseEPA per play gained −0.03 +0.13 worse by 0.16
Colts defenseEPA per play allowed +0.62 +0.10 worse by 0.53

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 87% of them, Colts 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+49.4%
Titans by 9–1619.9%
Titans by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation1.6%
Colts by 1–86.8%
Colts by 9–163.2%
Colts by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 17.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:41 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% TEN IND: Touchdown
2 Q1 6:05 The Colts converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% IND IND: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:40 The Colts converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +11% IND IND: Touchdown
4 Q1 0:43 Illegal Shift on the Titans, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +6% IND IND: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:25 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% IND TEN: Punt
6 Q2 7:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 13 yardsJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 6:25 Illegal Use of Hands on the Colts (Rock Ya-Sin), 2 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 1447 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:31 The Titans converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • DeForest Buckner (IND DT), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Ryan Kelly (IND C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Bobby Okereke (IND LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Denico Autry (IND DT/D), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Adam Humphries (TEN WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 100% · Colts 0%

Final margin
Titans by 19
Luck in points
1.4 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 17.6
Replay with same day's form
Titans 87% · Colts 13% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Titans · Colts

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