luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · December 2, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Ravens at Steelers, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Steelers beat the Ravens 19–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Steelers win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Steelers were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 7:04 left): the Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 28 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Baltimore Ravens 14
Pittsburgh Steelers 19

December 2, 2020 · Heinz Field · Closing line: Steelers −10.5

Luck index +14 Steelers about even · −14 Ravens

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Ravens win 1, Steelers win 9.

  1. 1 BAL 30 PIT 24
  2. 2 BAL 17 PIT 19
  3. 3 BAL 20 PIT 24
  4. 4 BAL 10 PIT 17
  5. 5 BAL 20 PIT 30
  6. 6 BAL 13 PIT 26
  7. 7 BAL 21 PIT 37
  8. 8 BAL 3 PIT 22
  9. 9 BAL 6 PIT 30
  10. 10 BAL 17 PIT 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Ravens win 14% of them, Steelers 86%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Steelers by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Ravens by 17+1.1%
Ravens by 9–163.8%
Ravens by 1–89.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
Steelers by 1–825.1%
Steelers by 9–1622.9%
Steelers by 17+37.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Steelers by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Ravens by 8.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Boswell, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Boswell, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Steelers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Steelers were ahead in it, below while the Ravens were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:44 The Ravens fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% PIT BAL: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 8:32 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 66% expected +9% BAL PIT: Opp touchdown
3 Q1 7:04 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expectedReturn touchdown by the SteelersSpecial teams +28% PIT BAL: Punt
4 Q1 4:41 The Steelers fumbled and the Ravens recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% BAL PIT: Field goal
5 Q2 3:47 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +10% BAL BAL: End of half
6 Q2 0:03 The Ravens were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +13% PIT BAL: Punt
7 Q3 13:31 The Steelers were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +8% BAL PIT: Punt
8 Q3 10:46 Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +11% PIT PIT: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Stephon Tuitt (PIT DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out · 0.8 pts
  • James Conner (PIT RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out (IR), replaced by r.griffin · 7.6 pts
  • Ronnie Stanley (BAL T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Mark Andrews (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Calais Campbell (BAL DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Judon (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Matt Skura (BAL C/G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Nick Boyle (BAL TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Pernell McPhee (BAL OLB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Willie Snead (BAL WR/R), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Morgan Cox (BAL LS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Ravens 37% · Steelers 63%

Final margin
Steelers by 5
Luck in points
13.1 for the Steelers
Luck-adjusted margin
Ravens by 8.1
Replay with same day's form
Ravens 14% · Steelers 86% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Ravens · Steelers

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