luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Jaguars, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jaguars 27–25 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.7 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:43 left): Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 12 yards, wiping out the play, worth 16 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Cleveland Browns 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

November 29, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +28 Browns lucky · −28 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 CLE 30 JAX 6
  2. 2 CLE 27 JAX 10
  3. 3 CLE 31 JAX 17
  4. 4 CLE 31 JAX 21
  5. 5 CLE 24 JAX 17
  6. 6 CLE 34 JAX 30
  7. 7 CLE 16 JAX 14
  8. 8 CLE 13 JAX 15
  9. 9 CLE 21 JAX 28
  10. 10 CLE 14 JAX 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 72% of them, Jaguars 28%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+21.6%
Browns by 9–1623.1%
Browns by 1–825.7%
Level after regulation4.1%
Jaguars by 1–815.4%
Jaguars by 9–167.0%
Jaguars by 17+3.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 9.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Rosas, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Parkey, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Rosas, 54 yds missed · 65% expected
  • C. Parkey, 45 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:24 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q3 14:48 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:51 The Jaguars converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:56 The Browns converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +10% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 14:20 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +9% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q4 3:43 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +16% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:22 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +13% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:14 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chase McLaughlin (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jones (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 92% · Jaguars 8%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
7.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 9.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 72% · Jaguars 28% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Browns · Jaguars

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