luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Jaguars, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Jaguars 27–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Browns were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 2:14 left): the Jaguars’ two-point try failed, worth 13 points of win probability to the Browns.

Final

Cleveland Browns 27
Jacksonville Jaguars 25

November 29, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Browns −7.5

Luck index +27 Browns lucky · −27 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 7, Jaguars win 3.

  1. 1 CLE 33 JAX 7
  2. 2 CLE 31 JAX 13
  3. 3 CLE 38 JAX 24
  4. 4 CLE 21 JAX 10
  5. 5 CLE 20 JAX 12
  6. 6 CLE 14 JAX 9
  7. 7 CLE 27 JAX 26
  8. 8 CLE 17 JAX 20
  9. 9 CLE 13 JAX 21
  10. 10 CLE 20 JAX 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 73% of them, Jaguars 27%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+23.7%
Browns by 9–1621.9%
Browns by 1–824.4%
Level after regulation3.9%
Jaguars by 1–815.7%
Jaguars by 9–167.6%
Jaguars by 17+2.9%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Browns by 2, without the luck Browns by 6.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • A. Rosas, 24 yds made · 97% expected
  • C. Parkey, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • A. Rosas, 54 yds missed · 66% expected
  • C. Parkey, 45 yds made · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 6 for 47 yards, Jaguars 5 for 24 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:56 Illegal Formation on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +1.0 pts
Q1 7:43 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% CLE +0.8 pts
Q1 1:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Browns (Terrance Mitchell), 12 yards +3% JAX +0.9 pts
Q2 4:08 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Aaron Lynch), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CLE +0.4 pts
Q3 11:41 Defensive Offside on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 1 yard · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.1 pts
Q3 10:24 Intentional Grounding on the Browns (Baker Mayfield), 11 yards +3% JAX +0.8 pts
Q3 0:01 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jaguars (Aaron Lynch), 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.5 pts
Q4 11:23 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 1 yard, wiping out the play +3% JAX +1.1 pts
Q4 3:43 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 12 yards, wiping out the play +10% JAX +3.4 pts
Q4 2:57 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% CLE +1.0 pts
Q4 1:43 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards +1% CLE +1.0 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 64%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 11:24 The Browns converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +9% CLE CLE: Field goal
2 Q3 15:00 The Browns fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX CLE: Field goal
3 Q3 14:48 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 9:36 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +7% CLE CLE: Field goal
5 Q4 5:42 The Browns were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% JAX CLE: End of game
6 Q4 3:43 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Browns (Olivier Vernon), 12 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 1026 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:22 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +7% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 2:14 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chase McLaughlin (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Jones (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • D.J. Hayden (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Abry Jones (JAX DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Myles Garrett (CLE DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 87% · Jaguars 13%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
4.4 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 6.4
Replay with same day's form
Browns 73% · Jaguars 27% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Browns · Jaguars

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