luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Broncos, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Broncos 31–3, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Saints win 8 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 6.7 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Saints were 90% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:31 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 27 points of win probability to the Saints.

Final

New Orleans Saints 31
Denver Broncos 3

November 29, 2020 · Empower Field at Mile High · Closing line: Saints −17

Luck index +16 Saints about even · −16 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 8, Broncos win 2.

  1. 1 NO 31 DEN 3
  2. 2 NO 31 DEN 10
  3. 3 NO 31 DEN 14
  4. 4 NO 14 DEN 0
  5. 5 NO 36 DEN 26
  6. 6 NO 21 DEN 14
  7. 7 NO 23 DEN 17
  8. 8 NO 16 DEN 13
  9. 9 NO 14 DEN 17
  10. 10 NO 16 DEN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 84% of them, Broncos 16%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 28.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+36.4%
Saints by 9–1622.4%
Saints by 1–823.9%
Level after regulation1.3%
Broncos by 1–810.2%
Broncos by 9–164.3%
Broncos by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 28. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 30.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 40 yds made · 85% expected
  • B. McManus, 58 yds made · 58% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Broncos’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Broncos were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:21 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +5% NO DEN: Punt
2 Q1 7:38 The Saints fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NO NO: Punt
3 Q1 6:23 The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +5% DEN NO: Punt
4 Q1 1:18 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Broncos (Dre'Mont Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 734 snaps before, position avg 1 per 259 +5% NO NO: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:22 The Saints converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% NO NO: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:23 The Saints converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:31 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expectedThe Broncos fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +27% NO DEN: Turnover
8 Q3 7:46 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +4% NO DEN: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Drew Lock (DEN QB), out, replaced by k.hinton · 1.0 pts
  • Shelby Harris (DEN DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Mike Purcell (DEN DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Brees (NO QB), out (IR), replaced by t.hill · 6.8 pts
  • Terron Armstead (NO T), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G/T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Broncos 0%

Final margin
Saints by 28
Luck in points
2.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 30.3
Replay with same day's form
Saints 84% · Broncos 16% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Saints · Broncos

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