luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chiefs at Buccaneers, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Chiefs beat the Buccaneers 27–24, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Chiefs win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff the Chiefs were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 8:16 left): Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 15 yards, wiping out the play, worth 12 points of win probability to the Chiefs.

Final

Kansas City Chiefs 27
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24

November 29, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Chiefs −3.5

Luck index +51 Chiefs lucky · −51 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chiefs win 5, Buccaneers win 5.

  1. 1 KC 47 TB 24
  2. 2 KC 34 TB 20
  3. 3 KC 33 TB 23
  4. 4 KC 36 TB 30
  5. 5 KC 20 TB 17
  6. 6 KC 27 TB 29
  7. 7 KC 37 TB 43
  8. 8 KC 27 TB 38
  9. 9 KC 24 TB 40
  10. 10 KC 10 TB 34

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chiefs win 49% of them, Buccaneers 51%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Chiefs by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chiefs by 17+11.1%
Chiefs by 9–1613.2%
Chiefs by 1–822.5%
Level after regulation5.5%
Buccaneers by 1–820.6%
Buccaneers by 9–1614.1%
Buccaneers by 17+13.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Chiefs by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Chiefs by 3.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • H. Butker, 19 yds made · 100% expected
  • H. Butker, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Chiefs were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:23 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390Neutral Zone Infraction on the Buccaneers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% KC KC: Field goal
2 Q1 12:18 H. Butker made 19-yard field goalKicks · 100% expected for him +5% TB KC: Punt
3 Q1 1:42 The Chiefs converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +11% KC KC: Touchdown
4 Q2 3:20 Illegal Motion on the Chiefs (Tyreek Hill), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 3 flags in 1346 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +5% TB TB: End of half
5 Q3 9:24 Defensive Offside on the Buccaneers (Ndamukong Suh), 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags · 7 flags in 1446 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +10% KC KC: Touchdown
6 Q4 12:50 The Buccaneers converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% TB TB: Touchdown
7 Q4 8:44 Offensive Holding on the Chiefs, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% TB TB: Touchdown
8 Q4 8:16 Roughing the Passer on the Buccaneers (Jason Pierre-Paul), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 1224 snaps before, position avg 1 per 402 +12% KC KC: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vita Vea (TB DL), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jamel Dean (TB CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Mitchell Schwartz (KC T), out (IR) · 1.5 pts
  • Kelechi Osemele (KC G), out (IR) · 0.5 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chiefs 64% · Buccaneers 36%

Final margin
Chiefs by 3
Luck in points
0.9 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Chiefs by 3.9
Replay with same day's form
Chiefs 49% · Buccaneers 51% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Chiefs · Buccaneers

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