luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Bengals, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Giants beat the Bengals 19–17, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.

Before kickoff the Giants were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:57 left): the Bengals fumbled and the Giants recovered, worth 20 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

New York Giants 19
Cincinnati Bengals 17

November 29, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Giants −6.5

Luck index +21 Giants about even · −21 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 8, Bengals win 2.

  1. 1 NYG 38 CIN 10
  2. 2 NYG 29 CIN 10
  3. 3 NYG 18 CIN 3
  4. 4 NYG 39 CIN 27
  5. 5 NYG 26 CIN 17
  6. 6 NYG 26 CIN 20
  7. 7 NYG 13 CIN 10
  8. 8 NYG 17 CIN 15
  9. 9 NYG 9 CIN 13
  10. 10 NYG 3 CIN 16

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 79% of them, Bengals 21%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Giants by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+26.3%
Giants by 9–1623.6%
Giants by 1–828.1%
Level after regulation2.6%
Bengals by 1–812.0%
Bengals by 9–165.7%
Bengals by 17+1.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +8.7 points to the Giants: the final margin was Giants by 2, without the luck Bengals by 6.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 44 yds made · 83% expected
  • G. Gano, 49 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Gano, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • G. Gano, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Gano, 32 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 51 yards, Bengals 3 for 27 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 7:58 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q1 1:02 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CIN +0.7 pts
Q2 4:48 Offensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Cethan Carter), 10 yards +3% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 10:54 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +1.9 pts
Q4 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 7 yards, wiping out the play +10% NYG +1.5 pts
Q4 3:03 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards +5% CIN +1.3 pts
Q4 2:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 17 yards +11% CIN +3.0 pts
Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 9 yards, wiping out the play +15% CIN +1.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:01 Return touchdown by the BengalsSpecial teams +18% CIN CIN: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:53 The Giants fumbled and the Bengals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% CIN NYG: Field goal
3 Q2 0:29 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% CIN NYG: Field goal
4 Q3 12:03 The Giants converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +8% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 5:04 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 7 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% NYG NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 2:43 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Darnay Holmes), 17 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 333 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +11% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +15% CIN CIN: Turnover
8 Q4 0:57 The Bengals fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +20% NYG –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 4.5 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darius Phillips (CIN CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ryan Lewis (NYG CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lorenzo Carter (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Adrian Colbert (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kaden Smith (NYG TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 33% · Bengals 67%

Final margin
Giants by 2
Luck in points
8.7 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Giants 79% · Bengals 21% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Giants · Bengals

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