luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cowboys, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Cowboys 41–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:22 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 41
Dallas Cowboys 16

November 26, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −2.5

Luck index +32 Washington lucky · −32 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington win 7, Cowboys win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 33 DAL 6
  2. 2 WAS 27 DAL 7
  3. 3 WAS 26 DAL 10
  4. 4 WAS 19 DAL 7
  5. 5 WAS 24 DAL 17
  6. 6 WAS 21 DAL 16
  7. 7 WAS 19 DAL 17
  8. 8 WAS 23 DAL 26
  9. 9 WAS 20 DAL 27
  10. 10 WAS 10 DAL 28

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington win 68% of them, Cowboys 32%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+20.5%
Washington by 9–1619.3%
Washington by 1–826.1%
Level after regulation2.1%
Cowboys by 1–818.3%
Cowboys by 9–168.9%
Cowboys by 17+4.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Washington by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Washington by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Washington were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 7:23 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% DAL WAS: Field goal
2 Q2 5:22 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +20% WAS DAL: Field goal
3 Q2 3:52 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +7% WAS WAS: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:30 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +7% WAS DAL: Field goal
5 Q3 10:48 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +7% WAS WAS: Turnover
6 Q3 4:21 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +18% DAL WAS: Punt
7 Q4 12:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +8% WAS DAL: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 12:21 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% WAS DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.4 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Washington by 25
Luck in points
14.0 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Washington 68% · Cowboys 32% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Washington · Cowboys

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