luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2020 · November 26, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Washington at Cowboys, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

Washington beat the Cowboys 41–16, and the replays lean its way: with the same day's form, it wins 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 5:22 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 20 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Washington Football Team 41
Dallas Cowboys 16

November 26, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −2.5

Luck index +31 Washington lucky · −31 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Washington wins 7, Cowboys win 3.

  1. 1 WAS 30 DAL 3
  2. 2 WAS 27 DAL 6
  3. 3 WAS 32 DAL 16
  4. 4 WAS 28 DAL 16
  5. 5 WAS 27 DAL 19
  6. 6 WAS 28 DAL 22
  7. 7 WAS 32 DAL 30
  8. 8 WAS 20 DAL 23
  9. 9 WAS 28 DAL 36
  10. 10 WAS 20 DAL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Washington wins 69% of them, Cowboys 31%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Washington by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Washington by 17+22.5%
Washington by 9–1619.9%
Washington by 1–825.9%
Level after regulation3.4%
Cowboys by 1–816.1%
Cowboys by 9–167.8%
Cowboys by 17+4.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +12.6 points to Washington: the final margin was Washington by 25, without the luck Washington by 12.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 23 yds made · 97% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • D. Hopkins, 36 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 28 yds made · 97% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Washington 5 for 53 yards, Cowboys 5 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 5:01 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Rashard Robinson), 5 yards +6% WAS +1.1 pts
Q1 3:52 Illegal Contact on the Cowboys (Jourdan Lewis), 5 yards +3% WAS +1.3 pts
Q1 2:43 False Start on Washington (Logan Thomas), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DAL +0.7 pts
Q2 5:22 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 15 yards +5% WAS +1.1 pts
Q2 0:49 Defensive Pass Interference on Washington (Ronald Darby), 28 yards +5% DAL +2.1 pts
Q3 12:53 False Start on Washington, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% DAL +0.5 pts
Q3 10:48 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% WAS +2.2 pts
Q3 7:54 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 5 yards +2% DAL +0.4 pts
Q3 2:27 Offensive Holding on Washington (Temarrick Hemingway), 10 yards +5% DAL +1.5 pts
Q4 11:06 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards +2% WAS +0.8 pts

Washington penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while Washington was.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:44 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% DAL DAL: Field goal
2 Q1 5:01 Defensive Holding on the Cowboys (Rashard Robinson), 5 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 34 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 5:22 The Cowboys were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +20% WAS DAL: Field goal
4 Q2 3:52 Washington converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
5 Q2 0:30 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +7% WAS DAL: Field goal
6 Q3 14:22 The Cowboys fumbled and Washington recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +5% WAS DAL: Punt
7 Q3 10:48 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Dalton Schultz), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 6 flags in 825 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +7% WAS WAS: Turnover
8 Q4 12:55 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +5% WAS DAL: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Dak Prescott (DAL QB), out (IR), replaced by a.dalton · 6.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Tyler Biadasz (DAL C), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Trysten Hill (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Kyle Allen (WAS QB), out (IR), replaced by a.smith · 1.4 pts
  • Landon Collins (WAS S), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Geron Christian (WAS T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Deshazor Everett (WAS S), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Washington 100% · Cowboys 0%

Final margin
Washington by 25
Luck in points
12.6 for the Washington
Luck-adjusted margin
Washington by 12.4
Replay with same day's form
Washington 69% · Cowboys 31% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Washington · Cowboys

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