luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Panthers at Vikings, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Panthers 28–27, but the replays lean toward the Panthers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 57 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:06 left): J. Slye missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 39 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Carolina Panthers 27
Minnesota Vikings 28

November 29, 2020 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −3

Luck index +67 Vikings very lucky · −67 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Panthers win 7, Vikings win 3.

  1. 1 CAR 45 MIN 21
  2. 2 CAR 26 MIN 9
  3. 3 CAR 34 MIN 21
  4. 4 CAR 33 MIN 24
  5. 5 CAR 26 MIN 20
  6. 6 CAR 27 MIN 24
  7. 7 CAR 26 MIN 24
  8. 8 CAR 17 MIN 20
  9. 9 CAR 12 MIN 19
  10. 10 CAR 20 MIN 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Panthers win 67% of them, Vikings 33%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 1.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Panthers by 17+16.7%
Panthers by 9–1619.8%
Panthers by 1–828.9%
Level after regulation2.6%
Vikings by 1–818.7%
Vikings by 9–168.5%
Vikings by 17+4.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.1 points to the Vikings: the final margin was Vikings by 1, without the luck Panthers by 0.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Bailey, 53 yds made · 69% expected
  • J. Slye, 28 yds blocked · 97% expected
  • D. Bailey, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 40 yds made · 89% expected
  • J. Slye, 21 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Panthers 7 for 58 yards, Vikings 8 for 52 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:19 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Trenton Cannon), 15 yards +1% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 10:43 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Derrick Brown), 5 yards · pre-snap +6% MIN +0.9 pts
Q1 3:29 Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Vikings (Kris Boyd), 8 yards +2% CAR +0.6 pts
Q2 10:30 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.8 pts
Q2 7:37 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 10 yards +3% MIN +0.9 pts
Q2 0:16 False Start on the Vikings (Chad Beebe), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.2 pts
Q2 0:10 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.7 pts
Q3 11:53 Delay of Game on the Vikings, 4 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.8 pts
Q3 11:41 Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers, 13 yards +2% MIN +1.2 pts
Q3 11:11 Face Mask on the Vikings, 15 yards +2% CAR +1.8 pts
Q3 2:57 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% CAR +0.9 pts
Q3 2:02 Illegal Forward Pass on the Vikings (Kirk Cousins), 5 yards, wiping out the play +6% CAR +2.4 pts
Q4 14:47 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play +3% MIN +1.4 pts
Q4 0:46 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 5 yards · pre-snap +11% MIN +0.4 pts
Q4 0:46 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yards · pre-snap +11% MIN +0.4 pts

Panthers penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 6% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Panthers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 2:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 0:05 D. Bailey made a 53-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 8 of 12 from 45+ before +9% MIN MIN: Opp touchdown
3 Q3 14:09 The Vikings fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +36% CAR MIN: Opp touchdown
4 Q3 14:01 The Vikings fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PanthersSpecial teams +30% CAR MIN: Punt
5 Q3 5:27 J. Slye had a 28-yard field goal blockedKicks · 97% expected for him +7% MIN CAR: Field goal
6 Q4 2:18 The Vikings fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% CAR MIN: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:46 Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Natrell Jamerson), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 105 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237Defensive Offside on the Panthers (Rasul Douglas), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 11 flags in 1462 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +22% MIN MIN: Touchdown
8 Q4 0:06 J. Slye missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 19 of 28 from 45+ before +39% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Holton Hill (MIN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Ezra Cleveland (MIN T), out · 0.4 pts
  • Kawann Short (CAR DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Donte Jackson (CAR CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Stephen Weatherly (CAR DE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Panthers 54% · Vikings 46%

Final margin
Vikings by 1
Luck in points
1.1 for the Vikings
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Panthers 67% · Vikings 33% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Panthers · Vikings

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