luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bears at Packers, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bears 41–25, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 10 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Bears.

Before kickoff the Packers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 3:20 left): Return touchdown by the Packers, worth 13 points of win probability to the Packers.

Final

Chicago Bears 25
Green Bay Packers 41

November 29, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −7.5

Luck index +3 Packers about even · −3 Bears

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bears win 0, Packers win 10.

  1. 1 CHI 21 GB 24
  2. 2 CHI 9 GB 16
  3. 3 CHI 17 GB 27
  4. 4 CHI 14 GB 27
  5. 5 CHI 7 GB 23
  6. 6 CHI 9 GB 27
  7. 7 CHI 6 GB 27
  8. 8 CHI 17 GB 41
  9. 9 CHI 14 GB 41
  10. 10 CHI 10 GB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bears win 3% of them, Packers 97%. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 16.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bears by 17+0.1%
Bears by 9–160.6%
Bears by 1–82.3%
Level after regulation0.4%
Packers by 1–812.0%
Packers by 9–1618.5%
Packers by 17+66.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 16. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 16.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Santos, 27 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Bears were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:19 The Packers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +8% GB GB: Touchdown
2 Q1 7:31 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
3 Q1 7:22 The Packers missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the time +2% CHI GB: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:23 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +3% GB CHI: Field goal
5 Q1 1:47 The Packers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:40 The Packers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:20 The Bears were stopped on 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 17% expectedThe Bears fumbled and the Packers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the PackersSpecial teams +13% GB CHI: Touchdown
8 Q2 0:26 Defensive Pass Interference on the Packers (Christian Kirksey), 2 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 417 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +4% CHI CHI: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Josh Jackson (GB CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Bobby Massie (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out · 0.5 pts
  • James Daniels (CHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaad Coward (CHI OL), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bears 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 16
Luck in points
0.3 for the Bears
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 16.3
Replay with same day's form
Bears 3% · Packers 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Bears · Packers

More from Week 12 2020