luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 30, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Eagles, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Eagles 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 9 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.7 points to the Eagles.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 68% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:17 left): the Seahawks converted 3rd & 13, worth 18 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 23
Philadelphia Eagles 17

November 30, 2020 · Lincoln Financial Field · Closing line: Seahawks −6.5

Luck index +8 Seahawks about even · −8 Eagles

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 9, Eagles win 1.

  1. 1 SEA 41 PHI 7
  2. 2 SEA 44 PHI 17
  3. 3 SEA 35 PHI 12
  4. 4 SEA 26 PHI 7
  5. 5 SEA 32 PHI 17
  6. 6 SEA 22 PHI 10
  7. 7 SEA 30 PHI 21
  8. 8 SEA 37 PHI 31
  9. 9 SEA 33 PHI 31
  10. 10 SEA 17 PHI 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 92% of them, Eagles 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+54.4%
Seahawks by 9–1621.3%
Seahawks by 1–815.2%
Level after regulation1.5%
Eagles by 1–85.3%
Eagles by 9–161.8%
Eagles by 17+0.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 6.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Elliott, 42 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Myers, 44 yds made · 77% expected
  • J. Myers, 33 yds made · 93% expected
  • J. Myers, 39 yds made · 86% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Eagles’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Eagles were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:51 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +9% SEA SEA: Turnover on downs
2 Q1 7:01 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +11% PHI SEA: Turnover on downs
3 Q1 3:44 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +11% PHI SEA: Punt
4 Q1 2:36 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +6% SEA PHI: Punt
5 Q2 14:27 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% SEA PHI: Punt
6 Q2 12:17 The Seahawks converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +18% SEA SEA: Touchdown
7 Q3 7:37 J. Elliott made 42-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +9% PHI PHI: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 9:42 Defensive Pass Interference on the Seahawks (Jordyn Brooks), 29 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 246 snaps before, position avg 1 per 395 +7% PHI PHI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Zach Ertz (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Nathan Gerry (PHI LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Shell (SEA T), out · 0.8 pts
  • Greg Olsen (SEA TE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • D.J. Reed (SEA CB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • D.J. Reed (SEA DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Simmons (SEA G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 81% · Eagles 19%

Final margin
Seahawks by 6
Luck in points
0.3 for the Eagles
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 6.3
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 92% · Eagles 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Seahawks · Eagles

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