luckadjusted

Week 12 2020 · November 29, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Falcons, Week 12 2020: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Raiders 43–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Falcons win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Raiders: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Raiders were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 0:14 left): the Raiders converted 4th & 3, worth 13 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 6
Atlanta Falcons 43

November 29, 2020 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3.5

Luck index +17 Falcons about even · −17 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 2, Falcons win 8.

  1. 1 LV 30 ATL 16
  2. 2 LV 31 ATL 28
  3. 3 LV 24 ATL 26
  4. 4 LV 37 ATL 41
  5. 5 LV 29 ATL 37
  6. 6 LV 13 ATL 24
  7. 7 LV 20 ATL 34
  8. 8 LV 12 ATL 30
  9. 9 LV 7 ATL 30
  10. 10 LV 17 ATL 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Raiders

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Falcons they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 17%.

31 points apart for the Raiders: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained −0.29 +0.17 worse by 0.47
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.18 better by 0.28
Falcons offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.12 worse by 0.22
Falcons defenseEPA per play allowed −0.29 +0.14 better by 0.44

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 17% of them, Falcons 83%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 37.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+2.2%
Raiders by 9–164.3%
Raiders by 1–89.6%
Level after regulation1.2%
Falcons by 1–820.4%
Falcons by 9–1623.1%
Falcons by 17+39.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 37. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 14.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 92% expected
  • Y. Koo, 39 yds made · 91% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 30 yds made · 97% expected
  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 98% expected
  • Y. Koo, 54 yds made · 71% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 46% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:35 The Raiders were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% ATL LV: Turnover
2 Q1 8:20 The Raiders fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ATL LV: Punt
3 Q1 0:14 The Raiders converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +13% LV LV: Field goal
4 Q2 6:02 Face Mask on the Raiders (Nevin Lawson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 8 flags in 1082 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% ATL ATL: Touchdown
5 Q2 4:29 Roughing the Kicker on the Raiders, 11 yardsJudgment calls +10% ATL ATL: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:23 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +8% ATL ATL: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:08 The Raiders fumbled and the Falcons recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% ATL LV: End of half
8 Q3 11:48 Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +7% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Julio Jones (ATL WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Todd Gurley (ATL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Damontae Kazee (ATL S), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Clelin Ferrell (LV DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • Lamarcus Joyner (LV S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 6% · Falcons 94%

Final margin
Falcons by 37
Luck in points
22.6 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 14.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 17% · Falcons 83% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 12 2020 games · Raiders · Falcons

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