2020 season · final
Cincinnati Bengals, 2020: game by game
The Bengals went 4–11–1 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 3.6 wins. Luck added 0.9: the 12th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–5–1.
Every game
How often the Bengals win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Chargers | L 13–16 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 2 | @ Browns | L 30–35 | 2% | −2 |
| Week 3 | @ Eagles | T 23–23 | 53% | −3 |
| Week 4 | vs Jaguars | W 33–25 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 5 | @ Ravens | L 3–27 | 3% | −3 |
| Week 6 | @ Colts | L 27–31 | 8% | −8 |
| Week 7 | vs Browns | L 34–37 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 8 | vs Titans | W 31–20 | 8% | +92 |
| Week 10 | @ Steelers | L 10–36 | 13% | −13 |
| Week 11 | @ Washington | L 9–20 | 11% | −11 |
| Week 12 | vs Giants | L 17–19 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 13 | @ Dolphins | L 7–19 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 14 | vs Cowboys | L 7–30 | 10% | −10 |
| Week 15 | vs Steelers | W 27–17 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 16 | @ Texans | W 37–31 | 36% | +64 |
| Week 17 | vs Ravens | L 3–38 | 4% | −4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Bengals’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.06 | +1.9 |
| Judgment calls | −0.22 | +1.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.30 | −13.2 |
| Injuries | −0.32 | −16.4 |
| Kicks | −0.54 | −9.9 |