luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Bengals, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Jaguars 33–25, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 3:32 left): Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 10 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 25
Cincinnati Bengals 33

October 4, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Bengals −1

Luck index +30 Bengals lucky · −30 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 3, Bengals win 7.

  1. 1 JAX 34 CIN 17
  2. 2 JAX 37 CIN 26
  3. 3 JAX 27 CIN 24
  4. 4 JAX 27 CIN 29
  5. 5 JAX 24 CIN 28
  6. 6 JAX 21 CIN 29
  7. 7 JAX 23 CIN 34
  8. 8 JAX 16 CIN 31
  9. 9 JAX 10 CIN 29
  10. 10 JAX 10 CIN 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 30% of them, Bengals 70%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+4.7%
Jaguars by 9–168.3%
Jaguars by 1–815.8%
Level after regulation3.5%
Bengals by 1–824.9%
Bengals by 9–1620.0%
Bengals by 17+22.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +0.5 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Bengals by 8, without the luck Bengals by 8.5. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 48 yds missed · 72% expected
  • R. Bullock, 35 yds made · 93% expected
  • A. Rosas, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • A. Rosas, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • R. Bullock, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • A. Rosas, 50 yds made · 66% expected
  • R. Bullock, 46 yds made · 79% expected
  • R. Bullock, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • A. Rosas, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Jaguars 6 for 49 yards, Bengals 7 for 73 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:08 Defensive Holding on the Bengals (Vonn Bell), 5 yards +1% JAX +0.4 pts
Q1 3:32 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +10% JAX +4.2 pts
Q1 2:41 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (LeShaun Sims), 17 yards +2% JAX +1.1 pts
Q1 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 9 yards +5% CIN +1.5 pts
Q1 1:46 Face Mask on the Bengals, 15 yards +5% JAX +1.8 pts
Q1 0:50 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 12 yards +3% JAX +1.4 pts
Q2 11:42 Illegal Contact on the Jaguars, 5 yards +3% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 12:29 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (James O'Shaughnessy), 10 yards +4% CIN +0.9 pts
Q3 11:44 Player Out of Bounds on Kick on the Jaguars (Collin Johnson), 5 yards +2% CIN +0.5 pts
Q3 10:50 Defensive Offside on the Jaguars (Dawuane Smoot), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q3 7:01 Chop Block on the Jaguars, 15 yards +2% CIN +1.4 pts
Q4 13:52 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the play +3% JAX +2.5 pts
Q4 6:59 Defensive Pass Interference on the Bengals (Jordan Evans), 4 yards 0% JAX +0.2 pts

Jaguars penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 29% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:52 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +6% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
2 Q1 7:23 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 50% expected +4% CIN JAX: Missed field goal
3 Q1 6:44 A. Rosas missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 1 of 3 from 45+ before +10% CIN JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 5:46 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +4% CIN CIN: Field goal
5 Q1 3:32 Offensive Holding on the Bengals, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +10% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q1 2:09 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 9 yardsJudgment calls +5% CIN CIN: Turnover
7 Q1 1:46 Face Mask on the Bengals, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:14 The Jaguars’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% CIN JAX: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Geno Atkins (CIN DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • Mackensie Alexander (CIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • John Ross (CIN WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX C), out · 0.4 pts
  • Jarrod Wilson (JAX FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Dede Westbrook (JAX WR), out · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX G), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 7% · Bengals 93%

Final margin
Bengals by 8
Luck in points
0.5 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 8.5
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 30% · Bengals 70% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Jaguars · Bengals

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