Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Eagles at 49ers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?
The Eagles stole one. They beat the 49ers 25–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 4.7 points to the Eagles.
Before kickoff the 49ers were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:06 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 10, worth 31 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 25 |
|---|---|
 San Francisco 49ers | 20 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +87 Eagles very lucky · −87 49ers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 1, 49ers win 9.
- 1 PHI 16 SF 10
- 2 PHI 7 SF 9
- 3 PHI 24 SF 27
- 4 PHI 10 SF 17
- 5 PHI 20 SF 30
- 6 PHI 10 SF 23
- 7 PHI 17 SF 33
- 8 PHI 17 SF 36
- 9 PHI 14 SF 38
- 10 PHI 6 SF 38
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 13% of them, 49ers 87%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 0.9% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 8.7% |
| Level after regulation | 1.4% |
| 49ers by 1–8 | 20.4% |
| 49ers by 9–16 | 23.9% |
| 49ers by 17+ | 41.8% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Eagles by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 6.4.
When it happened
49ers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 0:31 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +15% SF | SF: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 4:25 | The 49ers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +11% SF | SF: Turnover |
| 3 | Q2 1:52 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +8% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 10:06 | The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expectedThe 49ers fumbled and the Eagles recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +31% PHI | SF: Opp touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 8:36 | The Eagles converted 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +16% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 6:39 | The Eagles fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +12% PHI | PHI: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 5:50 | Return touchdown by the EaglesSpecial teams | +24% PHI | PHI: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:07 | The 49ers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected | +17% PHI | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jimmy Garoppolo (SF QB), out, replaced by n.mullens · 4.4 pts
- Richard Sherman (SF CB), out (IR) · 1.6 pts
- Nick Bosa (SF DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Emmanuel Moseley (SF CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Dre Greenlaw (SF LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Ahkello Witherspoon (SF CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Raheem Mostert (SF RB), out · 0.2 pts
- Dee Ford (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
- Dallas Goedert (PHI TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
- Jason Peters (PHI T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- DeSean Jackson (PHI WR), out · 0.6 pts
- Avonte Maddox (PHI CB), out · 0.3 pts
- Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jalen Reagor (PHI WR), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Jason Peters (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 40% · 49ers 60%
- Final margin
- Eagles by 5
- Luck in points
- 11.4 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- 49ers by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 13% · 49ers 87% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · 
Eagles · 
49ers
More from Week 4 2020
- Broncos at Jets DEN 37–28 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers CAR 31–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Washington BAL 31–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Browns at Cowboys CLE 49–38 · replay 40% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 33–25 · replay 67% for the winner
- Chargers at Buccaneers TB 38–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Vikings at Texans MIN 31–23 · replay 88% for the winner
- Saints at Lions NO 35–29 · replay 64% for the winner
- Seahawks at Dolphins SEA 31–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 17–9 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Raiders BUF 30–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Colts at Bears IND 19–11 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Falcons at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 72% for the winner