luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Chargers at Buccaneers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Buccaneers beat the Chargers 38–31 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Chargers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 1.6 points to the Chargers.

Before kickoff the Buccaneers were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 0:12 left): the Chargers converted 3rd & 7, worth 30 points of win probability to the Chargers.

Final

Los Angeles Chargers 31
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 38

October 4, 2020 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Buccaneers −7.5

Luck index +28 Buccaneers lucky · −28 Chargers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Chargers win 3, Buccaneers win 7.

  1. 1 LAC 38 TB 20
  2. 2 LAC 18 TB 10
  3. 3 LAC 19 TB 16
  4. 4 LAC 31 TB 34
  5. 5 LAC 14 TB 20
  6. 6 LAC 21 TB 29
  7. 7 LAC 23 TB 35
  8. 8 LAC 16 TB 32
  9. 9 LAC 24 TB 45
  10. 10 LAC 13 TB 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Chargers win 28% of them, Buccaneers 72%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Buccaneers by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Chargers by 17+4.7%
Chargers by 9–167.8%
Chargers by 1–814.7%
Level after regulation2.9%
Buccaneers by 1–823.5%
Buccaneers by 9–1619.1%
Buccaneers by 17+27.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Buccaneers by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Buccaneers by 4.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Succop, 44 yds missed · 80% expected
  • M. Badgley, 53 yds made · 65% expected
  • M. Badgley, 47 yds missed · 76% expected
  • R. Succop, 26 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 8% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Chargers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:08 Return touchdown by the ChargersSpecial teams +29% LAC LAC: Opp touchdown
2 Q2 14:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Buccaneers (Jordan Whitehead), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1273 snaps before, position avg 1 per 510 +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
3 Q2 10:44 Defensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 20 yardsJudgment calls · 13 flags in 1234 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +6% LAC LAC: Touchdown
4 Q2 9:58 The Chargers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% LAC LAC: Touchdown
5 Q3 3:34 Chop Block on the Chargers (Justin Jackson), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 159 snaps before, position avg 1 per 765 +7% TB TB: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:44 M. Badgley missed 47-yard field goalKicks · 76% expected for him, 3 of 5 from 45+ before +7% TB LAC: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:12 The Chargers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +30% LAC LAC: Touchdown
8 Q4 6:09 The Buccaneers converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +6% TB TB: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Chris Godwin (TB WR), out · 1.0 pts
  • Mike Williams (LAC WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Melvin Ingram (LAC DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Justin Jones (LAC DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Drue Tranquill (LAC LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Chargers 15% · Buccaneers 85%

Final margin
Buccaneers by 7
Luck in points
2.2 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Buccaneers by 4.8
Replay with same day's form
Chargers 28% · Buccaneers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Chargers · Buccaneers

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