luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Jets, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Broncos beat the Jets 37–28, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Broncos win 9 of 10. The Jets had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 2.7 points to the Jets.

An off day for the Jets: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 10:56 left): Return touchdown by the Jets, worth 60 points of win probability to the Jets.

Final

Denver Broncos 37
New York Jets 28

October 1, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Jets −1

Luck index +12 Broncos about even · −12 Jets

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 9, Jets win 1.

  1. 1 DEN 44 NYJ 13
  2. 2 DEN 37 NYJ 13
  3. 3 DEN 33 NYJ 14
  4. 4 DEN 30 NYJ 14
  5. 5 DEN 27 NYJ 13
  6. 6 DEN 20 NYJ 9
  7. 7 DEN 24 NYJ 16
  8. 8 DEN 16 NYJ 10
  9. 9 DEN 19 NYJ 17
  10. 10 DEN 15 NYJ 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Jets

Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Broncos they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.

37 points apart for the Jets: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Broncos offenseEPA per play gained +0.32 +0.04 better by 0.27
Broncos defenseEPA per play allowed −0.13 +0.08 better by 0.20
Jets offenseEPA per play gained −0.13 +0.02 worse by 0.15
Jets defenseEPA per play allowed +0.32 +0.13 worse by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 88% of them, Jets 12%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Broncos by 9.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+44.5%
Broncos by 9–1622.6%
Broncos by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jets by 1–88.9%
Jets by 9–162.6%
Jets by 17+0.9%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Broncos by 9. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Broncos by 3.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 40 yds made · 88% expected
  • S. Ficken, 26 yds made · 97% expected
  • S. Ficken, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • S. Ficken, 32 yds made · 94% expected
  • B. McManus, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • S. Ficken, 54 yds made · 61% expected
  • S. Ficken, 36 yds made · 91% expected
  • B. McManus, 53 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jets’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 72%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jets were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:37 The Jets converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +17% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 5:35 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +15% DEN DEN: Touchdown
3 Q3 12:57 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Michael Ojemudia), 38 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 195 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 +13% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
4 Q4 10:56 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expectedReturn touchdown by the JetsSpecial teams +60% NYJ DEN: Turnover
5 Q4 5:04 Face Mask on the Jets (Quinnen Williams), 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 707 snaps before, position avg 1 per 390 +18% DEN DEN: Field goal
6 Q4 4:11 The Broncos converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +21% DEN DEN: Field goal
7 Q4 3:17 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 22% expectedIntentional Grounding on the Broncos, 10 yardsJudgment calls +16% NYJ DEN: Field goal
8 Q4 2:05 The Jets were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +25% DEN NYJ: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Le'Veon Bell (NYJ RB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Arthur Maulet (NYJ CB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Vyncint Smith (NYJ WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Breshad Perriman (NYJ WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Nathan Shepherd (NYJ DE), out · 0.3 pts
  • Drew Lock (DEN QB), out, replaced by b.rypien · 1.8 pts
  • Courtland Sutton (DEN WR), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Jurrell Casey (DEN DT), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Elijah Wilkinson (DEN T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Von Miller (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jeremiah Attaochu (DEN LB), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 57% · Jets 43%

Final margin
Broncos by 9
Luck in points
5.3 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Broncos by 3.7
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 88% · Jets 12% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Broncos · Jets

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