Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Texans, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Texans 31–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 4.2 points to the Texans.
An off day for the Texans: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 3:31 left): the Vikings converted 3rd & 10, worth 11 points of win probability to the Vikings.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 31 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +12 Vikings about even · −12 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 MIN 36 HOU 6
- 2 MIN 41 HOU 17
- 3 MIN 30 HOU 10
- 4 MIN 40 HOU 23
- 5 MIN 38 HOU 24
- 6 MIN 37 HOU 26
- 7 MIN 37 HOU 30
- 8 MIN 24 HOU 20
- 9 MIN 23 HOU 20
- 10 MIN 21 HOU 27
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Texans
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 50% of the time; with this day’s form, 12%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
38 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.12 | better by 0.20 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.09 | better by 0.23 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.13 | worse by 0.27 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.16 | worse by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 88% of them, Texans 12%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 43.0% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 24.1% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 19.4% |
| Level after regulation | 1.5% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 8.2% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Texans by 17+ | 1.0% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Vikings by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 17.2.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Bailey, 31 yds made · 97% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 71% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- D. Bailey, 55 yds missed · 66% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 98% expected
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 10:08 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected | +7% MIN | HOU: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 1:18 | The Texans fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIN | HOU: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 8:50 | K. Fairbairn made 50-yard field goalKicks · 71% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before | +5% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:15 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q3 7:29 | D. Bailey missed 55-yard field goalKicks · 66% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before | +10% HOU | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 5:40 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +5% MIN | HOU: Field goal |
| 7 | Q3 3:31 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +11% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:15 | The Texans were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +7% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 100% · Texans 0%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 8
- Luck in points
- 9.2 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 17.2
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 88% · Texans 12% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · 
Vikings · 
Texans
More from Week 4 2020
- Broncos at Jets DEN 37–28 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers CAR 31–21 · replay 80% for the winner
- Ravens at Washington BAL 31–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Browns at Cowboys CLE 49–38 · replay 40% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 33–25 · replay 67% for the winner
- Chargers at Buccaneers TB 38–31 · replay 72% for the winner
- Saints at Lions NO 35–29 · replay 64% for the winner
- Seahawks at Dolphins SEA 31–23 · replay 82% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 17–9 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bills at Raiders BUF 30–23 · replay 45% for the winner
- Colts at Bears IND 19–11 · replay 60% for the winner
- Eagles at 49ers PHI 25–20 · replay 13% for the winner
- Patriots at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 83% for the winner
- Falcons at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 72% for the winner