Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Vikings at Texans, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?
The Vikings beat the Texans 31–23, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Vikings win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 12 points of win probability to the Texans.
An off day for the Texans: their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Texans were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 7:29 left): D. Bailey missed a 55-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Texans.
Final
 Minnesota Vikings | 31 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 23 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Vikings about even · −13 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Vikings win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 MIN 38 HOU 6
- 2 MIN 40 HOU 13
- 3 MIN 48 HOU 27
- 4 MIN 24 HOU 7
- 5 MIN 24 HOU 10
- 6 MIN 30 HOU 19
- 7 MIN 26 HOU 19
- 8 MIN 16 HOU 12
- 9 MIN 19 HOU 17
- 10 MIN 17 HOU 24
Your call
Did the Vikings earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Texans
Their offense and defense both played far below their usual level. In a fresh game against the Vikings they would win 49% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
37 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Vikings offenseEPA per play gained | +0.32 | +0.12 | better by 0.20 |
| Vikings defenseEPA per play allowed | −0.14 | +0.09 | better by 0.23 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | −0.14 | +0.13 | worse by 0.27 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.32 | +0.16 | worse by 0.16 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Vikings win 87% of them, Texans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 8.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Vikings by 17+ | 46.9% |
| Vikings by 9–16 | 21.7% |
| Vikings by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 1.9% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 7.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 2.6% |
| Texans by 17+ | 1.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- D. Bailey, 31 yds made · 96% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 50 yds made · 69% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
- D. Bailey, 55 yds missed · 67% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 25 yds made · 98% expected
Penalties: Vikings 4 for 36 yards, Texans 2 for 15 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:53 | False Start on the Texans (John Reid), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% MIN +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:13 | Disqualification on the Vikings (Harrison Smith), 10 yards | +3% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q3 7:39 | Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards | +4% HOU +2.1 pts |
| Q4 8:21 | Defensive Holding on the Vikings, 5 yards | 0% HOU +0.5 pts |
| Q4 8:13 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 10 yards | +1% MIN +1.4 pts |
| Q4 2:27 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings, 11 yards | 0% HOU +1.1 pts |
Vikings penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:53 | False Start on the Texans (John Reid), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 0 flags in 50 snaps before, position avg 1 per 207 | +4% MIN | MIN: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 10:08 | The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected | +5% MIN | HOU: Punt |
| 3 | Q1 1:18 | The Texans fumbled and the Vikings recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% MIN | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 8:50 | K. Fairbairn made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 5 of 11 from 45+ before | +5% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 5:15 | The Vikings converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 65% expected | +6% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q3 7:29 | D. Bailey missed a 55-yard field goalKicks · 67% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before | +10% HOU | MIN: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q3 3:31 | The Vikings converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +9% MIN | MIN: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 1:15 | The Texans were stopped on 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% MIN | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Gareon Conley (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Danielle Hunter (MIN DE), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
- Anthony Barr (MIN LB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Pat Elflein (MIN G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
- Mike Hughes (MIN CB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Vikings 100% · Texans 0%
- Final margin
- Vikings by 8
- Luck in points
- 7.5 for the Texans
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Vikings by 15.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Vikings 87% · Texans 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · 
Vikings · 
Texans
More from Week 4 2020
- Broncos at Jets DEN 37–28 · replay 88% for the winner
- Cardinals at Panthers CAR 31–21 · replay 78% for the winner
- Ravens at Washington BAL 31–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Browns at Cowboys CLE 49–38 · replay 42% for the winner
- Jaguars at Bengals CIN 33–25 · replay 70% for the winner
- Chargers at Buccaneers TB 38–31 · replay 74% for the winner
- Saints at Lions NO 35–29 · replay 69% for the winner
- Seahawks at Dolphins SEA 31–23 · replay 84% for the winner
- Giants at Rams LA 17–9 · replay 66% for the winner
- Bills at Raiders BUF 30–23 · replay 44% for the winner
- Colts at Bears IND 19–11 · replay 60% for the winner
- Eagles at 49ers PHI 25–20 · replay 12% for the winner
- Patriots at Chiefs KC 26–10 · replay 84% for the winner
- Falcons at Packers GB 30–16 · replay 72% for the winner