luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 5, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Packers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Falcons 30–16 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 2.0 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Packers were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:30 left): the Falcons converted 4th & 3, worth 9 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 16
Green Bay Packers 30

October 5, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5

Luck index +28 Packers lucky · −28 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 30 GB 13
  2. 2 ATL 21 GB 14
  3. 3 ATL 24 GB 21
  4. 4 ATL 24 GB 27
  5. 5 ATL 15 GB 20
  6. 6 ATL 21 GB 28
  7. 7 ATL 17 GB 27
  8. 8 ATL 17 GB 31
  9. 9 ATL 9 GB 28
  10. 10 ATL 24 GB 48

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 28% of them, Packers 72%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.3%
Falcons by 9–166.6%
Falcons by 1–815.3%
Level after regulation4.6%
Packers by 1–826.8%
Packers by 9–1622.1%
Packers by 17+21.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 14.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Fry, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +5% GB ATL: Punt
2 Q1 3:19 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +6% ATL GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:30 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +9% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 9:47 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +7% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 7:46 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% GB ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 5:18 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:34 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +5% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:55 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +4% GB ATL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kenny Clark (GB NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ricardo Allen (ATL SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Takkarist McKinley (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
none
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 14.0
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 28% · Packers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Falcons · Packers

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