luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2020 · October 5, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Packers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Falcons 30–16, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Packers were 64% favorites.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 16
Green Bay Packers 30

October 5, 2020 · Lambeau Field · Closing line: Packers −5

Luck index +28 Packers lucky · −28 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 3, Packers win 7.

  1. 1 ATL 29 GB 14
  2. 2 ATL 27 GB 20
  3. 3 ATL 27 GB 24
  4. 4 ATL 21 GB 23
  5. 5 ATL 34 GB 38
  6. 6 ATL 28 GB 35
  7. 7 ATL 25 GB 35
  8. 8 ATL 30 GB 44
  9. 9 ATL 17 GB 37
  10. 10 ATL 3 GB 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 28% of them, Packers 72%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+3.4%
Falcons by 9–167.5%
Falcons by 1–814.9%
Level after regulation4.5%
Packers by 1–825.4%
Packers by 9–1621.8%
Packers by 17+22.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +1.3 points to the Packers: the final margin was Packers by 14, without the luck Packers by 12.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • E. Fry, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Crosby, 48 yds made · 74% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
  • Extra point missed · 94% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Falcons 3 for 23 yards, Packers 3 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q2 1:21 Offensive Holding on the Packers, 10 yards +2% ATL +1.4 pts
Q3 8:30 Defensive Offside on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% ATL +0.3 pts
Q3 7:20 Face Mask on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 15 yards +2% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 4:14 False Start on the Falcons, 4 yards · pre-snap 0% GB +1.0 pts
Q3 1:15 Roughing the Passer on the Packers (Za'Darius Smith), 15 yards +1% ATL +2.5 pts
Q4 9:28 Defensive Holding on the Falcons, 4 yards +1% GB +0.9 pts

Falcons penalties, every game · Packers penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Packers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Packers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:46 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +4% GB ATL: Punt
2 Q1 3:19 The Packers were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% ATL GB: Touchdown
3 Q2 12:30 The Falcons converted 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
4 Q2 9:47 The Falcons converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
5 Q2 7:46 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% GB ATL: Field goal
6 Q2 5:18 The Packers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +6% GB GB: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:34 The Packers converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +4% GB GB: Touchdown
8 Q3 7:20 The Falcons missed an extra pointKicks · extra points are made about 94% of the timeFace Mask on the Falcons (Christian Blake), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 5 flags in 468 snaps before, position avg 1 per 385 +4% GB ATL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Davante Adams (GB WR), out · 1.3 pts
  • Allen Lazard (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kenny Clark (GB NT), out · 0.5 pts
  • Christian Kirksey (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Darqueze Dennard (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL S), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ricardo Allen (ATL SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Younghoe Koo (ATL K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Takkarist McKinley (ATL DE), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 0% · Packers 100%

Final margin
Packers by 14
Luck in points
1.3 for the Packers
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 12.7
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 28% · Packers 72% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Falcons · Packers

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